Will Spain ban us next??? (2 Viewers)

[wiljoy]

Looking to head down to the warmth in early December but have become very apprehensive.
Could Spain decide at short notice that we are not allowed as Morocco have.
It's certainly a gamble as the UK hits 50,000 cases today and our government are sitting on the fence again.

 

[Jenka]

Lifes a gamble at the moment im afraid .Best just make a decision at stick to it .

 

[Bluemooner]

Think you can still travel to Morocco by ferry but you need to test on the ferry

 

[Duck Truck]

If you test positive they just chuck you overboard

 

[Tombola]

has anyone got any figures on how many of these cases are double jabbed?

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[PJGWiltshire]

It’s clear that Morocco are trying to stop the new type Delta landing on their shores by stopping flights from uk Germany and Holland. Either France and other countries will be added to that soon as the new strain is all over mainland Europe. Watching TV in Spain last night and their numbers are going up now reaching 2000 a day, yes 2000 and they are saying the new strain is the cause. I do not know if they are testing children but tge figures are very low even taking into account the population of 47 million. I go with the view heat and lots of heat forces everyone outside thus prevents spread plus masks still in use in buses snd in shops

 

[Speve]

I would think if you are already in Spain it would not be a problem so get out there before a ban is implemented

 

[Lenny HB]

I'm enjoying my trip in Spain at the moment.

 

[tony_g]

I'm enjoying my trip in Spain at the moment.

Yep, us too!

 

[Badknee]

We sail on 28th Dec so but someone did say we test more than anyone else so find cases whereas other countries might have cases but don’t know?

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[busby]

Looking to head down to the warmth in early December but have become very apprehensive.
Could Spain decide at short notice that we are not allowed as Morocco have.
It's certainly a gamble as the UK hits 50,000 cases today and our government are sitting on the fence again.

Looking at our figures I can't believe any country is letting us enter.We need masks re introducing and no entry to any establishment without a Covid pass.BUSBY.

 

[busby]

We sail on 28th Dec so but someone did say we test more than anyone else so find cases whereas other countries might have cases but don’t know?

Think deaths and hospital admissions show that's not true.BUSBY.

 

[gus-lopez]

We sail on 28th Dec so but so

To where?

 

[Badknee]

To where?

Wigan

 

[stevewagner]

has anyone got any figures on how many of these cases are double jabbed?

I read that 23000 since 15th October are double jabbed

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[suavecarve]

Think deaths and hospital admissions show that's not true.BUSBY.

I think you ll find that if you compared persons within ICU across Europe (which is easily comparable) and then adjusted it to population, then you might reconsider your thoughts. ICU is a tad more accurate (imv) (and we are given the comparable figures without having to hunt for them) as they are either on a life support machine or not. Deaths are counted differently in each country. For example we are currently losing 100 ish each day for 40-50,000 infections whereas Germany are losing 50 for 10,000 infections and Italy 40 for 3,000 infections. Sort of points to us doing numerous more tests to find numerous more positives (less life threatening infections) in my opinion or their health service is rubbish or they have a more deadly virus.

Spain and Italy are better than us (pro rata) but France and Germany are worst as are several of the smaller countries such as Belgium and Holland.

I would also like to understand how last week the UK announced 951 deaths and England announced 487 in hospitals leaving 464 (about 50%) mortalities in Scotland NI and Wales and those in England not dying in hospitals when in reality they have accounted for about 15-20%. I d like to know that because my thought process is that we are overloading the reported death figures (again) (25% of todays reported deaths in NHS England were over a week old almost as if they were found in PM)

 

[glenn2926]

Looking to head down to the warmth in early December but have become very apprehensive.
Could Spain decide at short notice that we are not allowed as Morocco have.
It's certainly a gamble as the UK hits 50,000 cases today and our government are sitting on the fence again.

I don’t think our government suddenly deciding we must wear masks etc would make any difference to whether other countries ban U.K. travellers.

 

[Brains]

has anyone got any figures on how many of these cases are double jabbed?

Deaths by COVID of the double jabbed (min 28 days earlier) are under 5%

I don't know the percentage of the double jabbed that get COVID, but one presumes it's single figure percentage.
The double jabbed tend not to end up in hospital.

 

[Brains]

I don’t think our government suddenly deciding we must wear masks etc would make any difference to whether other countries ban U.K. travellers.

No, but it would considerably reduce the number of infections.

I've gone back to mask wearing in all public places unless eating or drinking

 

[wiljoy]

My concern is we travel down to Spain and they tell us to get out.

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[Badknee]

My concern is we travel down to Spain and they tell us to get out.

That happened to us in 2020 but it was the camps that were closed not just the Brits chucked out. If you’ve been double stabbed and are covid free why would they chuck you out?

 

[PhilandMena]

We are planning to overwinter in Spain and not too worried about the UK Covid figures at present. It may be a case that France/Spain revert to a situation where the pre departure and double vaccination are required to enter their country.

 

[gus-lopez]

I don't know the percentage of the double jabbed that get COVID, but one presumes it's single figure percentage.
The double jabbed tend not to end up in hospital.

I think UK figures are similar to here where 83% new hospital admissions are unvaccinated for whatever reason with the remaining 17% being either double jabbed or had the first jab. So the average here would be 32 people every day admitted to hospital who have had at least one jab, if not both.

 

[suavecarve]

Deaths by COVID of the double jabbed (min 28 days earlier) are under 5%

I don't know the percentage of the double jabbed that get COVID, but one presumes it's single figure percentage.
The double jabbed tend not to end up in hospital.

The last figures to be produced (that i know of) were double jabbed deaths were 1.2%
These figures are somewhat skewed though as it was all deaths this year from 2/1/21 to 2/7/21 and basically nobody was double jabbed + 2/3/4 weeks til March.
Total of 640 up to 2/7/21 were double jabbed and perished to the disease.
It would not surprise me to see it was under 5% in current conditions though

 

[Clipgate]

Data suggest that although COVID-19 is usually milder if contracted after vaccination than in unvaccinated individuals, mortality remains high in hospitalised individuals: data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium have shown a mortality of 27·0% (400 of 1482 died) in individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK more than 21 days after vaccination, similar to mortality rates observed during the first wave (March–April, 2020).
It seems a common factor is Obesity in the infection and mortality rates.

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[Jenka]

That happened to us in 2020 but it was the camps that were closed not just the Brits chucked out. If you’ve been double stabbed and are covid free why would they chuck you out?

The campsites with the appropriate license stayed open and all you needed was your own sanitary facilities and no one was chucked out .

 

[bellabee]

Looking at our figures I can't believe any country is letting us enter.We need masks re introducing and no entry to any establishment without a Covid pass.BUSBY.

We're just back from France, today, and we've been saying the same.
We felt so much safer in France, with everyone wearing masks indoors, and showing the Pass Sanitaire.
It's been a bit of a shock for us, arriving back in the UK after 7 weeks away.

 

[Just smiffy]

I’m on the train next Friday then straight down to Spain… that’s if my new passport gets here…

 

[PJGWiltshire]

We have been away in Spain since 22nd September. Heading back to UK for booster jab around 14th November. Was considering flying and leaving the van in Spain, get jabbed kiss babies then get back out here. Problem is if they shut us out, no evidence they will but who knows, van is in Spain. So booked on Santander ferry then drive back through France till March.

 

[EML]

has anyone got any figures on how many of these cases are double jabbed?

Good question, but there's no direct answer at coronavirus.data.gov.uk. However, you can more-or-less work it out given the ONS figures here. The ONS claims that

Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech reduced the risk of testing positive by 73% in the Delta period, compared with 80% in the Alpha period.

Two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca reduced the risk of testing positive by 62% in the Delta period, compared with 76% in the Alpha period.

• If you just look at Delta, and assume 50/50 Pfizer/Astra, then double vaccination reduces the risk of testing positive by about 67.5%. If the unknown risk of testing positive is r, then the double-vaccinated therefore have a risk of 0.325r, while the rest of us have a risk of r
• The current postive test rate is 454.5 cases per 100K people. This is a rolling 7-day number, taking into account today's figure of 52000 cases
• Assume a population of 100K people, and that 80% of the population is double-vaccinated, so 20% is not double vaccinated

To get a rate of 454.5 we have:

(0.8 * 100K * 0.325r) + (0.2 * 100K * 1r) = 454.5

So r is 454.5/46000 = 0.00988. So, out of those 454.5 people, about 257 were double-vaccinated, and 198 weren't. In other words, about 57% of people who randomly test positive are actually double jabbed. I think. Corrections welcome.

This sounds bad, but only because most people have been double-vaccinated, and there aren't many of the others left.

Besides, no-one really cares about positive tests - what matters are hopitalisations and deaths. For deaths, the important figure is for 'breakthrough deaths' - people who test positive 14 or more days after a second jab, and subsequently die of Covid. These people have a median age of 84, and form only about 0.5% - 1.2% of all Covid deaths, depending on gender/etc. In short, you're pretty unlikely to die of Covid if you've had 2 jabs and not tested positive within 14 days of the second.

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