So many new vans - how long can it go on? (1 Viewer)

[Easyliving]

There has been a lot of talk over the past couple of years about how the motorhome industry is booming and we, apparently, have loads of money to spend on new vans.

I was flipping through the supplement given with the current issue of MMM that shows the new vans that will be available in 2019. Elsewhere I read that there are about 1400 new model motorhomes, PVCs and campers coming onto the market.

I wonder how long this can go on though? How long till the bubble bursts and firms start going broke.

Paul

 

[ramsthom]

Probably follow the same as the car industry. Sales boom up to 2017 then 2018 a 10 to 15% reduction. There's a thread about Autotrail reducing there workforce due to falling sales but I reckon other manufactures will be doing something similar in the near future.

 

[2657]

When the babyboomer retirement bubble bursts!

 

[Minxy]

The stats are always deceptive IMV, 1400 new models doesn't mean completely new additions to the existing fleet as many of them will simply be tweaks to the same outgoing 2018 models to tempt people to replace them with the 2019 models, and some will be discontinued and a revised version made instead.

 

[Garfields]

If you want a new build of particular makes / models you are still looking at six to nine months wait.
Some of that will be down to waits for base vehicles and converters doing certain models in batches but the demand is still out there at present
Demand for cars has dropped back due to governments starting to push the phasing out of diesel and petrol so folk are sitting tight at present rather than changing
Most cars have a lifespan of about ten years so any bought now will be off the road before diesel etc availability starts to disappear

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[nicholsong]

I think the increase in sales of MHs is partly because of the 'grey pound' in the baby boomers' hands, but also the relaxation of private pansions' rules and ages for drawing in the last few years, which have allowed people to take out more money and earlier - just hope some of them have left enough for retirement, and for more years of it.

I think there will be a limit to that cash and then there will be a retrenchment.

Other factors which may cause a retrenchment are

Less drivers with C1, affecting payload and/or quality

Travel restrictions in Europe - only UK market

More parking restrictions in UK, Spain, Portugal.

Increase in overnight charges, even for Aires, CLs, CSs

When a retrenchment comes there will have to be mergers, but not a bad thing as there are too many manufacturers with too many models - compared with car manufacturers. Higher volume of fewer of each might bring costs and prices down.

Geoff

 

[martin2603]

On the Car side Jaguar LandRover and Mini on 3 Day week right now . Large demand fall off in China and the Middle East. Not withstanding Trump and make America Great again!
It has slowed down Globally right now , as has been said it is us old codgers that keep buying MH s. For the short term I think .

 

[Jim]

So many people finance vans over quite a number of years. When rates rise, and they are going to, sales of new vans will fall much further.

I'd like to study some historical price lists to see how much they have increased by. Maybe we should start collating some.

I only really take notice of prices when I'm in the market to buy so not looked for a few years, but when I do look in passing at a windcreen sticker price I'm amazed. It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

 

[PJGWiltshire]

So many people finance vans over quite a number of years. When rates rise, and they are going to, sales of new vans will fall much further.

I'd like to study some historical price lists to see how much they have increased by. Maybe we should start collating some.

I only really take notice of prices when I'm in the market to buy so not looked for a few years, but when I do look in passing at a windcreen sticker price I'm amazed. It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

You are right.
We bought our present van 2 1/2 years ago. Since then has been a 20K increase in price. Yes our van is German and we bought when the Pound to Euro at 1.32, but very little has changed on the present van that would justify such a large increase. So the increase is purely to do with the exchange rate.

 

[houdini]

So many people finance vans over quite a number of years. When rates rise, and they are going to, sales of new vans will fall much further.

I'd like to study some historical price lists to see how much they have increased by. Maybe we should start collating some.

I only really take notice of prices when I'm in the market to buy so not looked for a few years, but when I do look in passing at a windcreen sticker price I'm amazed. It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

Hope this means our vans will hold their prices when we come to sell them.

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[gus-lopez]

Probably follow the same as the car industry. Sales boom up to 2017 then 2018 a 10 to 15% reduction. There's a thread about Autotrail reducing there workforce due to falling sales but I reckon other manufactures will be doing something similar in the near future.

& Ford's in Valencia are not producing vehicles for 9 days again in November as well as no engines produced for an additional 3 days . That's after they had a few days without production last month.

 

[gus-lopez]

It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

No you aren't alone. I fail to see where the price increases have come from apart from the 'good times' appear to have returned so manufacturers think they can recoup the lack of profit from the lean years.

So the increase is purely to do with the exchange rate.

Unless the EU ones are 30-40K € cheaper then it isn't just the exchange rate.
Additionally ALL EU vans should be cheaper in the UK before delivery due TO the exchange rate.

 

[Nicepix]

There isn't as much choice as the figures would suggest. Many of the Trigano owned companies are selling the same vehicles under different marques with only slight cosmetic changes to them. In one catalogue Chausson and Challenger offer the same van at the same price. You get a similar situation with Pilote / Bavaria and Rapido / Fleurette as well as the Hymer brands. It is very much like the car industry with Citroen / Peugeot, Renault / Nissan, Ford / Mazda / Jaguar, etc all sharing parts and making basically the same vehicles.

 

[Blue Knight]

I wonder how long this can go on though? How long till the bubble bursts and firms start going broke.

Paul

I have a hunch that we'll start to lose a couple of dealers from next year and that the surviving traders will be those who become more focused on their customer needs.

 

[BobtheBass]

I think the reduction of the size of the market for new vans has already started. Many dealers seem to have large stocks of unsold vehicles that they are heavily discounting, numbers of visitors were down at the recent NEC show and manufacturers are flooding the press with announcements of supposed new models to try to tempt us to buy their products. All the time the vans themselves, supposedly in an effort to save weight are being made more cheaply and less substantially so my conclusion would be that things have slowed down and profit margins are slipping. Add to this the number of company buy outs recently, the lessening of numbers of qualified drivers able to pilot larger vans and exchange rate problems and a gloomy picture of the immediate future for the Motorhome industry emerges.

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[two]

Shame that the number of pitches available in UK has not increased in line with the number of units.

 

[SpeedyDux]

I think the reduction of the size of the market for new vans has already started. Many dealers seem to have large stocks of unsold vehicles that they are heavily discounting, numbers of visitors were down at the recent NEC show and manufacturers are flooding the press with announcements of supposed new models to try to tempt us to buy their products. All the time the vans themselves, supposedly in an effort to save weight are being made more cheaply and less substantially so my conclusion would be that things have slowed down and profit margins are slipping. Add to this the number of company buy outs recently, the lessening of numbers of qualified drivers able to pilot larger vans and exchange rate problems and a gloomy picture of the immediate future for the Motorhome industry emerges.

Good analysis.

If the MH dealers can't shift all their 2018 stock (and perhaps even a few 2017 models hanging around) are they going to be able to meet their sales targets for 2019 models if new buyers aren't there in enough numbers? Factories need to operate at full capacity or very near it otherwise they incur big financial losses. If MH manufacturers wait for customer orders instead of pre-ordering base vehicles from Fiat etc the delivery delays will get longer especially for RHD ones. Expect more temporary layoffs and shutdowns.

 

[Jagtazman]

So many people finance vans over quite a number of years. When rates rise, and they are going to, sales of new vans will fall much further.

I'd like to study some historical price lists to see how much they have increased by. Maybe we should start collating some.

I only really take notice of prices when I'm in the market to buy so not looked for a few years, but when I do look in passing at a windcreen sticker price I'm amazed. It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

I worked out 5% increase for past 4 years at least. At NEC last year I was told by most dealers 5% increase is norm and will continue same increase indefinitely.
The last budget quoted 4.7% rises
Shame those of us who still work don't get a similar pay rise.
If the prices continue to rise I reckon sales will slow down.

 

[BusyBuilder]

Latest MMM mag still saying sales are increasing year on year, and numbers at NEC were up.

 

[BobtheBass]

Latest MMM mag still saying sales are increasing year on year, and numbers at NEC were up.

They have to please their advertisers unfortunately so can't report the truth. Makes them look a bit pathetic really.

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[Allanm]

We looked at new German made motorhomes at a dealer in East Anglia. They were still selling 2017 and 2018 models as new and accepting orders from the new 2019 range.
The older vans were heavily discounted and seem to be selling very slowly. All the new vans we looked at that were in stock to buy are still there 2 months on.

 

[busby]

So many people finance vans over quite a number of years. When rates rise, and they are going to, sales of new vans will fall much further.

I'd like to study some historical price lists to see how much they have increased by. Maybe we should start collating some.

I only really take notice of prices when I'm in the market to buy so not looked for a few years, but when I do look in passing at a windcreen sticker price I'm amazed. It seems that a van that that was 55k 5 years ago is over £80k now, but I' dont know if this is right or just me imagining it.

Found the invoice in my previous Autosleeper Symphony which was a 1998,,Price was £28500.. BUSBY..

 

[Viennese]

In 6 years the basic price of my WildAx Constellation has gone up exactly £11k, from £40,995 to £51,995. I can't see the sales expansion lasting much longer hopefully.

 

[Nostrovia]

When we visit sites, the value of people's vans never ceases to amaze me. We tend to visit CCC sites, and there is no lack of £60-70-80k new motorhomes, and ~£30k caravans and ~£30k towcars.

Can this really be sustainable?

 

[Blue Knight]

When we visit sites, the value of people's vans never ceases to amaze me. We tend to visit CCC sites, and there is no lack of £60-70-80k new motorhomes, and ~£30k caravans and ~£30k towcars.

Can this really be sustainable?

I think there are a lot more mid-to-high end vans on finance than people first think though, hence the increase in van sales.

I was at a dealer the other week and it was quite apparent from speaking with the sales guys that a good number of their six-figure vans go out on finance.

There was one example whereby one guy put £10k down as a deposit and the remaining £120k went on finance over 120-months.

The MoHo industry is starting to slow down IMO and people will inevitably lose a whole load of dosh when it does go pop.

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[tacr2man]

Chancellor George Brown , and Gravity both good references to formulate an answer , and on top of that ideologue politicians , so pretty cut and dried really

 

[Tanya_and_Mick]

I personally think growth will continue - due to differing generation(s) and evolving market mindset.

I think to what/how my parents bought a car, planned and spent disposable income on holiday's; plus, the evolution of the Costa del 'x', to how the current three different generations think / spend disposable income.

History has taught is one thing. Markets may dip but typically they evolve and produce growth over the long term - the MoHo industry model will adapt and change.

 

[Cheshirecat57]

Found the invoice in my previous Autosleeper Symphony which was a 1998,,Price was £28500.. BUSBY..

And the minimum wage in 1998 was £3.60......does that make them CHEAPER now pro-rata?

 

[Nasher]

Found the invoice in my previous Autosleeper Symphony which was a 1998,,Price was £28500.. BUSBY..

Not sure of the price new now, but £28,500 in 1998 would be about £49,000 with inflation today

 

[busby]

Not sure of the price new now, but £28,500 in 1998 would be about £49,000 with inflation today

Just for a cheap panel van with a kitchen and a couple of beds eh BUSBY

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