2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan? (1 Viewer)

[Gromett]

Here is a sign of the progress in batteries being made. Tesla have increased the capacity of the Tesla Model 3 LR from 75KWh to 82KWh in the same space and for the same price, in their 2021 models which are hitting the market now.
That is an almost 10% improvement in capacity just by changes to the cell chemistry as I understand it.

 

[Terry]

Hi Karl,how long has it taken for Tesla to improve from first introduced 75kwh to 82 kWh (10%)?
Any .new on horizon for better/ different batteries ?

 

[Coolcats]

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Car Development Intensifies in China​

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[Garry - June]

I think a lot of people are panicking that vans they purchase now will be worth nowt in ten yrs time....cant see that happening...for one there will be firms who can offer electric conversions ( they do already for cars)....and i can still see a demand for classic old school internal combustion technology....in fact prices will probably rise for some..

 

[minesapint]

And a final kicker for hydrogen cars. Other than the Toyota Mirai are there any others in mass production? So even if you wanted an expensive hydrogen car, had a hydrogen station near you, you would still be stuck with a choice of either the Toyota Mirai or the Toyota Mirai?

The Hyundai ix35 has been discontinued and the hyundai Nexo is not available yet as I understand it.

It seems you are very pro EV's and fairly anti Hydrogen. Try this link it is all about the Hydrogen truck fleet in the USA.https://nikolamotor.com/motor. It does away the faff of charging a vehicle every 80 ish miles, and can be filled in minutes to get a very long range. If the fuel companies want to and they see a profit in it, they will build hydrogen filling stations here.

 

[Gromett]

It seems you are very pro EV's and fairly anti Hydrogen. Try this link it is all about the Hydrogen truck fleet in the USA.https://nikolamotor.com/motor. It does away the faff of charging a vehicle every 80 ish miles, and can be filled in minutes to get a very long range. If the fuel companies want to and they see a profit in it, they will build hydrogen filling stations here.

You couldn't have chosen a worse company as your example. I have been following them since they launched. HUGE promises and all turned to dust. They are now just buying GM hydrogen tech and paying another company to build their stuff.

I am not anti hydrogen. It has it's uses. It is just no good for cars, vans and regular trucks. If you read back you will see I give reasons based on science, maths and reality. It is not some bias, it is a conclusion reached through research, physics, maths and economics.

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[prentii]

Can't see hybrids being viable.

 

[Gromett]

Hi Karl,how long has it taken for Tesla to improve from first introduced 75kwh to 82 kWh (10%)?
Any .new on horizon for better/ different batteries ?

I said in my post from the model 3 launch. So 3 years. This is a better battery. it is 10% more performant.

This is before they get to the 4680 cell with tabless design and structural build system.

 

[Gromett]

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Car Development Intensifies in China​

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Still won't work here for the reasons I have stated again and again and again.

China is different to the UK in that the central government can decree that every city has to have x number of hydrogen filling stations and it happens.

In the UK we have to find investors to put money in and those investors want a return.

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[Gromett]

I think a lot of people are panicking that vans they purchase now will be worth nowt in ten yrs time....cant see that happening...for one there will be firms who can offer electric conversions ( they do already for cars)....and i can still see a demand for classic old school internal combustion technology....in fact prices will probably rise for some..

I just bought a 10 year old van for £2,350. If I were buying a brand new van, I doubt I would be worried about it being worth £1,350 instead of £2,350 when I sold it in 10 years.

 

[Coolcats]

Still won't work here for the reasons I have stated again and again and again.

China is different to the UK in that the central government can decree that every city has to have x number of hydrogen filling stations and it happens.

In the UK we have to find investors to put money in and those investors want a return.

Given that all technology is influenced by politics it is not beyond the realm of possibilities of a global economy such as China did make such a decree that any Hydrogen technology used in their domestic market would be made available Globally. An equal possibility is that it is market specific. Humans are not rational beings and life is full of surprises. We have hydrogen powered road sweepers so why not cars? Only time will tell, Toyota did bring us the Prius which has been a successful hybrid.

Toyota to Develop Hydrogen Fuel Cell with Chinese Companies (article is June 2020).

Looks like Hydrogen may be one alternative fuel we will see more often.

“Last year, China shifted 2,737 units of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, many of which were public buses and commercial vehicles used for logistics, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers”

 

[Coolcats]

Apple plans self-driving car 'in 2024 with next-level battery technology

Another challenger to Tesla

I suspect if Apple made MoHo's it would be at a N&B standard of luxury

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[SpeedyDux]

Apple plans self-driving car 'in 2024 with next-level battery technology

Another challenger to Tesla

I suspect if Apple made MoHo's it would be at a N&B standard of luxury

If Apple pricing is true to form their main competitor is likely to be Bentley rather than Tesla.

 

[Coolcats]

If Apple pricing is true to form their main competitor is likely to be Bentley rather than Tesla.

Yup but at least the panels will fit properly, and if you break down you will be picked up by a Robo Concierge and as they say have the next generation of Batteries, what's not to like.

 

[Gromett]

Given that all technology is influenced by politics it is not beyond the realm of possibilities of a global economy such as China did make such a decree that any Hydrogen technology used in their domestic market would be made available Globally. An equal possibility is that it is market specific. Humans are not rational beings and life is full of surprises. We have hydrogen powered road sweepers so why not cars? Only time will tell, Toyota did bring us the Prius which has been a successful hybrid.

Toyota to Develop Hydrogen Fuel Cell with Chinese Companies (article is June 2020).

Looks like Hydrogen may be one alternative fuel we will see more often.

“Last year, China shifted 2,737 units of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, many of which were public buses and commercial vehicles used for logistics, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers”

You TOTALLY missed the point I made. It is not the production of hydrogen that is the issue. Nor the fact that the technology isn't mature enough. It obviously.

Read my response again please. China can DICTATE that hydrogen pumps be rolled out to every city. This cannot happen in the UK unless the government fully funds it, which isn't going to happen. So you need investors in the UK to build out the network. This isn't going to happen.

Even if by magic it was to happen (and it won't) where is all the extra electric going to come from?

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[Gromett]

Apple plans self-driving car 'in 2024 with next-level battery technology

Another challenger to Tesla

I suspect if Apple made MoHo's it would be at a N&B standard of luxury

Hilarious article. I particularly loved the bit about next generation batteries. Then they go with LFP which is the oldest and least energy dense of all the battery chemistries.

The article author appears to have built a narrative from a bunch of guesses and unquoted sources.

 

[Coolcats]

You TOTALLY missed the point I made. It is not the production of hydrogen that is the issue. Nor the fact that the technology isn't mature enough. It obviously.

Read my response again please. China can DICTATE that hydrogen pumps be rolled out to every city. This cannot happen in the UK unless the government fully funds it, which isn't going to happen. So you need investors in the UK to build out the network. This isn't going to happen.

Even if by magic it was to happen (and it won't) where is all the extra electric going to come from?

Gromett I do get the point you made and at no point have I said you are wrong but there seems to be commercial money going into Hydrogen I am not making it up the evidence is out there. whether it will be a long term success only time will tell. When you say China dictating this is no different to overseas manufactures and companies having a heavy influence on data or social networks such as Cisco, Facebook Google so yes technology is politically shaped.

 

[Coolcats]

Hilarious article. I particularly loved the bit about next generation batteries. Then they go with LFP which is the oldest and least energy dense of all the battery chemistries.

The article author appears to have built a narrative from a bunch of guesses and unquoted sources.

The product has not launched so its all toung in cheek and its unlikely anyone will know what will be in the product until launch unless you have an inside line i guess

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[Gromett]

Gromett I do get the point you made and at no point have I said you are wrong but there seems to be commercial money going into Hydrogen I am not making it up the evidence is out there. whether it will be a long term success only time will tell. When you say China dictating this is no different to overseas manufactures and companies having a heavy influence on data or social networks such as Cisco, Facebook Google so yes technology is politically shaped.

I have never said there is no money going into hydrogen, and I support that. It will be a very useful technology to have for certain sectors. Again I repeat, I am only saying hydrogen has no place in cars, vans and trucking.

Again you try to change the subject. Your comparison with data, social networks etc is a bit daft. It costs next to nothing to roll out a data based system. It costs millions per hydrogen filling station. It would cost many, many billions to build out a full hydrogen station filling network. In the UK this cannot be done by dictat like in china.

You still haven't answer me these questions.
1) Who will buy a hydrogen car if there aren't any filling stations?
2) Who will invest in hydrogen filling stations if there aren't enough hydrogen cars to make them profitable?
3) Where are we going to get 3+ times as much electric for Hydrogen generation as would be used by direct charging EV's

You keep pointing to irrelevant things like this China post. Or "well universities are studying this" Or Australia is building out hydrogen generation plants. None of these things answer the core questions and seem to be just be an attempt to divert attention away from the fact you haven't got an answer to these key questions.

These key questions also provide us the answer to the OP question about Hydrogen motorhomes.

 

[Gromett]

The product has not launched so its all toung in cheek and its unlikely anyone will know what will be in the product until launch unless you have an inside line i guess

The reason I laugh at that article and a similar one in the telegraph is 2 fold.

1) They don't even have a test car on the road and they are going to release a self driving one in under 4 years. Most serious companies developing self driving cars have been at it for many years on real roads. Apple is going to swoop in and create a car from scratch, develop and refine the AI, test it and put it into production in 4 years? Yup, I can see that happening.
2) They claim advanced battery tech, then resort to LiFePO4 tech which is well established and understood. That is a bit like saying I am going to launch a new high tech 3D video streaming platform based on VHS tapes.


I am not saying they are not working on self driving cars. The obviously are. But 2024 is a fantasy in my opinion.

 

[Coolcats]

I am not saying they are not working on self driving cars. The obviously are. But 2024 is a fantasy in my opinion.

Then again the iphone came from nowhere and others have caught up it’s the nature of technology and market forces. No one knows what they are working on maybe we will see something maybe we won’t.

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[Coolcats]

I have never said there is no money going into hydrogen, and I support that. It will be a very useful technology to have for certain sectors. Again I repeat, I am only saying hydrogen has no place in cars, vans and trucking.

Again you try to change the subject. Your comparison with data, social networks etc is a bit daft. It costs next to nothing to roll out a data based system. It costs millions per hydrogen filling station. It would cost many, many billions to build out a full hydrogen station filling network. In the UK this cannot be done by dictat like in china.

You still haven't answer me these questions.
1) Who will buy a hydrogen car if there aren't any filling stations?
2) Who will invest in hydrogen filling stations if there aren't enough hydrogen cars to make them profitable?
3) Where are we going to get 3+ times as much electric for Hydrogen generation as would be used by direct charging EV's

You keep pointing to irrelevant things like this China post. Or "well universities are studying this" Or Australia is building out hydrogen generation plants. None of these things answer the core questions and seem to be just be an attempt to divert attention away from the fact you haven't got an answer to these key questions.

These key questions also provide us the answer to the OP question about Hydrogen motorhomes.

OK regarding data networks, Cisco (and others) have people that lobby the government they have the backing and strategy from their organisations and it reaches deep in to the political landscape. We are heavily influenced by other countries and where we can this country does the same.
So returning to MoHo’s if there is a shift to delivery vans having Hydrogen as an option yes I can see this being a feasible fuel along with Battery powered vehicles. I would not be surprised to see older vehicles having either a conversion for hybrid Hydrogen/Diesel.

 

[Terry]

More interested than looking to argue If it's taken 3 years to gain a 10% increase in battery performance,how long is it going to take to double or even treble performance from the battery 3? .If I understand this right ( I may not)the 10% gain is from repackaging the existing battery and adding more cells? Or to put it another way saving 10% on size of existing battery? Is there anything out there that is a better option battery? Are all car companies using Tesla batteries ?

 

[Gromett]

Then again the iphone came from nowhere and others have caught up it’s the nature of technology and market forces. No one knows what they are working on maybe we will see something maybe we won’t.

There is a bit of a difference integrating existing technologies to make a phone than to creating a self driving car from scratch.

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[Gromett]

More interested than looking to argue If it's taken 3 years to gain a 10% increase in battery performance,how long is it going to take to double or even treble performance from the battery 3? .If I understand this right ( I may not)the 10% gain is from repackaging the existing battery and adding more cells? Or to put it another way saving 10% on size of existing battery? Is there anything out there that is a better option battery? Are all car companies using Tesla batteries ?

No, the 10% gain was simply from a change in the chemistry. The cells are still the same size, using the same packing tech.

Tesla have a new packaging method, a new tabless design and a new format. This will give a more than 50% increase in energy and power. They are working on the production lines for this now and should be with us in 2-3 years.

 

[Gromett]

OK regarding data networks, Cisco (and others) have people that lobby the government they have the backing and strategy from their organisations and it reaches deep in to the political landscape. We are heavily influenced by other countries and where we can this country does the same.
So returning to MoHo’s if there is a shift to delivery vans having Hydrogen as an option yes I can see this being a feasible fuel along with Battery powered vehicles. I would not be surprised to see older vehicles having either a conversion for hybrid Hydrogen/Diesel.

Again either missing the point or trying to change the subject.

I am not doing Cisco or any data network stuff. I deal with that in my day job.

So returning to motorhomes. I will rephrase the question.

1) Who will buy a hydrogen motorhome if there aren't any filling stations?
2) Who will invest in hydrogen filling stations if there aren't enough hydrogen motorhomes to make them profitable?
3) Where are we going to get 3+ times as much electric for Hydrogen generation as would be used by direct charging our EV motorhomes?

 

[Gromett]

Global average temperatures rose during the Medieval Warm Period well before the industrial revolution and rise in CO2. Then they fell again. This fact undermines the theory that global warming is caused by rising CO2. At best there might be some correlation. Climatology is a long term science and whjat we get are claims based on very short periods of observations. I could criticise the recent data as well but I'm sure you won't accept that. The graph you posted doesn't really correlate much with the graph for increased CO2.

As for the alleged recent increase in extreme weather events this is difficult to take seriously when you look at what has happened in the past. It is not significant.

If the average temperature does go up 2 degrees then the UK will get a couple more sunny days each summer. Big deal. I was looking forward to a Mediterranean climate but that isn't predicted by the most extreme climate change activists. Boo hiss wotta swiz.

This video may interest you.

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[Terry]

No, the 10% gain was simply from a change in the chemistry. The cells are still the same size, using the same packing tech.

Tesla have a new packaging method, a new tabless design and a new format. This will give a more than 50% increase in energy and power. They are working on the production lines for this now and should be with us in 2-3 years.

Cheers for that Karl If they can get 50% more capacity does that mean 50% more range ? Or more? At the moment I believe a Tesla car has 300 plus miles and from what I understand most other cars only have half that range if they are lucky hence anyone got different battery technology? I remember reading a few years ago about sea salt batteries? That looked interesting but I never found any information on them but I gathered they are old technology? and a alternative to lead acid.
On a different note what van have you bought ?

 

[63720]

Apple plans self-driving car 'in 2024 with next-level battery technology

Another challenger to Tesla

I suspect if Apple made MoHo's it would be at a N&B standard of luxury

If apple made MHs probably the steering wheel would be on one side only, theirs, and the pedals would have completely different functions

 

[Coolcats]

There is a bit of a difference integrating existing technologies to make a phone than to creating a self driving car from scratch.

All manufacturers are doing this Tesla just makes a big hoopla about it, whilst I cannot recall the Israeli company Tesla were using they learnt what they needed too and then started their own technology. It’s something Microsoft does, they will partner with an organisation learn what they need to then bring forward their own variant such as SQL server

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