2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan? (1 Viewer)

[Terry]

What price is a HR version ? Also with a payload of only 1 ton (lwb) you are not going to have any spare payload for your belongings once converted. If I have my math right he also said that you loose approx 30 miles off your 150 with weight which as a MH will be fully loaded all the time.
That means as yet it's nowhere near being a viable use as a MH.
Sorry Karl but if you bought this vehicle in 10 years time it would be no use whatsoever. Chances are that in 10 years time the batteries would have lost 10 / 20% of there capacity as well further reducing the range. 10 years down the line if battery capacity doubles or trebles then it may be a viable option,but then your 10year plan becomes a 20year one

 

[Gromett]

What price is a HR version ? Also with a payload of only 1 ton (lwb) you are not going to have any spare payload for your belongings once converted. If I have my math right he also said that you loose approx 30 miles off your 150 with weight which as a MH will be fully loaded all the time.
That means as yet it's nowhere near being a viable use as a MH.
Sorry Karl but if you bought this vehicle in 10 years time it would be no use whatsoever. Chances are that in 10 years time the batteries would have lost 10 / 20% of there capacity as well further reducing the range. 10 years down the line if battery capacity doubles or trebles then it may be a viable option,but then your 10year plan becomes a 20year one

If you watched the entire video you would have seen that the vans rated mileage was based on a 77% load.

This is a small van and would be set up as a camper. I would be converting it myself and it will only have the essentials in it so very light weight.

I converted a Fiat Ducato last time and it weight in at 3,100KG with EVERYTHING in it I needed to live for the last 10 years and I didn't scrimp on things..

The batteries may have lost 10% of their capacity (I would choose one with decent battery lifespan) this would still be enough for me.

I drive for 2 hours and take a break so 90-120 miles is sufficient for me. My daily needs are 50 miles max for a visit to mum, then 10 miles maximum local trip.

If I do a France run in it. It will be over days not hours I do it, so even then not insurmountable.

Anyway, my point wasn't that it was this van that I would choose, but the fact that vans are coming out now that may be suitable for me in 10 years time when I am next looking which surprised me.

 

[Terry]

Hi Karl I watched the full video and noted that every 100kg took 2%off range,hence me saying if I got math right As I am sure you know I also convert quite a lot of vans and even with your "basic" conversion you put over a ton of weight into your van . I use lightweight ply that weighs half the weight of normal ply 22 kg as to 45 for normal ply. I use approx 9 / 10 sheets on a lwb he van saving almost quarter a ton I know exactly what goes into a van be it basic or fully loaded,indeed my last "own" van also tipped the scales at 3150 kg Inc water,fuel and passenger and had everything in it.
We all use vehicles different.I could very easily run a leccy car day to day but occasionally need more than 300 miles in a day as with MH. I don't want to travel to say Birmingham or shell island(Wales) for 3/4 days it needs to be done in a day or my time away would be nil,once on site. I would need to set off back home I could of course hire a car for the longer journey but even tha take 2/ 3 hours to pick up from here then 2 hours to drop it back off so that again is not practical.
As things stand I cannot see that by today's standards a leccy MH is a possibility in 10 years exception being a brand new vehicle, that's IF they can greatly improve range and have capacity / materials to make the millions more batteries that will be needed

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[mitzimad]

its a shame that the whole move to electric vehicles wasnt regulated with removable battery packs to allow instant recharge

 

[Spriddler]

I'm 75 so my plan is to live long enough for it to be a problem.

 

[Gromett]

Coolcats

Straight from the horses mouth.

It’s time for politicians to accept science: Green hydrogen is needed for steel, chemical, aero,... and should not end up in cars. Far too expensive, inefficient, slow and difficult to rollout and transport. After all: no #hydrogen cars in sight.

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[Garry - June]

Why worry about something in the future...everything could change again in 5 yrs..... in the meantime i'll continue to enjoy my van...

 

[68c]

Will be the end of pressed steel vehicles, computer laid up composites to get the weight low enough. Strength got from double skin over a foam interior like light aircraft. So ideal for a motorhome as ready insulated.

 

[Herbyventures]

Assuming we don't win the lottery and buy some fancy new hybrid or electric type of thing in the meantime, our plan is to continue driving around in the old one for as long as possible and then think about it!

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[minesapint]

Hi Karl I watched the full video and noted that every 100kg took 2%off range,hence me saying if I got math right As I am sure you know I also convert quite a lot of vans and even with your "basic" conversion you put over a ton of weight into your van . I use lightweight ply that weighs half the weight of normal ply 22 kg as to 45 for normal ply. I use approx 9 / 10 sheets on a lwb he van saving almost quarter a ton I know exactly what goes into a van be it basic or fully loaded,indeed my last "own" van also tipped the scales at 3150 kg Inc water,fuel and passenger and had everything in it.
We all use vehicles different.I could very easily run a leccy car day to day but occasionally need more than 300 miles in a day as with MH. I don't want to travel to say Birmingham or shell island(Wales) for 3/4 days it needs to be done in a day or my time away would be nil,once on site. I would need to set off back home I could of course hire a car for the longer journey but even tha take 2/ 3 hours to pick up from here then 2 hours to drop it back off so that again is not practical.
As things stand I cannot see that by today's standards a leccy MH is a possibility in 10 years exception being a brand new vehicle, that's IF they can greatly improve range and have capacity / materials to make the millions more batteries that will be needed

 

[minesapint]

Your maths are correct, the prospect of a leccy milkfloat type Motorhome is not going to be much use to most of us as things stand at the moment, for all the reasons you quote. We have done almost 400Kms in France in a single stint to get back to the ferry. With a leccy vehicle we would have to have added quite a few extra days holiday to cover the same ground. The whole leccy thing is a knee jerk reaction which does not seem to have been thought through.

 

[nicholsong]

Will be the end of pressed steel vehicles, computer laid up composites to get the weight low enough. Strength got from double skin over a foam interior like light aircraft. So ideal for a motorhome as ready insulated.

Our MH and many others are built and insulated like that. Built 2003.

Geoff

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[The Lobster]

It’s time for politicians to accept science: Green hydrogen is needed for steel, chemical, aero,... and should not end up in cars. Far too expensive, inefficient, slow and difficult to rollout and transport. After all: no #hydrogen cars in sight.

As you say "no hydrogen cars" --- this is a discussion about vans, which generally follow the product strategies developed for commercial vehicles. But in fact hydrogen cars are well developed in some places - e.g. Japan. If you look at the largest manufacturer - Daimler Group - they're about to split off their commercial vehicles from cars, into separate companies. This is because they see the product strategies as quite distinct. In commercial vehicles hydrogen very much does figure in their R&D plans, whilst cars continue down the electric route (for now). The fact is, EV is an interim measure needed to quickly improve CO2 impact, but I haven't seen anyone in the industry think that it has a long term future for cars - whereas hydrogen seems to be more viewed in that way.

So I can imagine that, in a couple of decades, we'll be having the same discussion, but focusing on EV vans being replaced by Hydrogen - with economics being the driving force, not the environment.

 

[Gromett]

As you say "no hydrogen cars" --- this is a discussion about vans, which generally follow the product strategies developed for commercial vehicles. But in fact hydrogen cars are well developed in some places - e.g. Japan. If you look at the largest manufacturer - Daimler Group - they're about to split off their commercial vehicles from cars, into separate companies. This is because they see the product strategies as quite distinct. In commercial vehicles hydrogen very much does figure in their R&D plans, whilst cars continue down the electric route (for now). The fact is, EV is an interim measure needed to quickly improve CO2 impact, but I haven't seen anyone in the industry think that it has a long term future for cars - whereas hydrogen seems to be more viewed in that way.

Ok, let's stick to van. The vast majority of vans are for commercial use and they do less than 100 miles per day. Ideally suited to batteries. Hydrogen still has the same problems, it is very expensive to make, ship and dispense. Battery capacity is doubling every 7 years and the cost has fallen by a magnitude in under 10 years and will continue to fall. Hydrogen is pretty much where it is.

So I can imagine that, in a couple of decades, we'll be having the same discussion, but focusing on EV vans being replaced by Hydrogen - with economics being the driving force, not the environment.

No. It is economics that rules out Hydrogen. See my previous posts on the subject in this thread. The economics for hydrogen can't improve a great deal as they are restricted by basic physics, the technology for batteries is improving rapidly.

 

[Gromett]

Your maths are correct, the prospect of a leccy milkfloat type Motorhome is not going to be much use to most of us as things stand at the moment, for all the reasons you quote. We have done almost 400Kms in France in a single stint to get back to the ferry. With a leccy vehicle we would have to have added quite a few extra days holiday to cover the same ground. The whole leccy thing is a knee jerk reaction which does not seem to have been thought through.

Leccy milkfloat

We are long past that type of tech. We no longer need lead batteries powering a DC motor.

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[68c]

Our MH and many others are built and insulated like that. Built 2003.

Geoff

I am suggesting the whole van could be built that way, not just the box on the back.

 

[The Lobster]

No. It is economics that rules out Hydrogen.

For now. Fuel cell EVs (powered by hydrogen) have a range of cheaper approaches to generating hydrogen in development. A recent report from Ballard and Deloitte China concludes that FCEVs will be cheaper to run than BEVs (battery powered EV) within a decade. The power density is much higher - so range will always be much better and similar to petrol/diesel, as well as other obvious advantages like distribution and decommissioning. If the relative cost is addressed then moving away from BEVs is a no brainer. Currently Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are prioritising FCEV development. That'll be the Toyota that makes more cars than anyone else, and Hyundai who are third.

 

[Gromett]

this is a discussion about vans, which generally follow the product strategies developed for commercial vehicles.

I thought you might question my less than 100 miles quote above. So here is the facts.

The average mileage of a commercial van in the uk is 12,811 miles per year.

Divide this by 52 to give the weekly average gives us 246 miles per week.

Let's say they are only used 5 days a week not 6. and you have an average mileage of 50 miles per day.

For every van that does double the average you need 2 that do half the average. So if you have a van doing 100 miles per day you will have 2 doing 25 miles per day. This pushes the vast majority of vans down WELL below the 100 miles per day range.

This is why you don't see commercial vans being produced with huge ranges. Not because they can't but because the vast bulk of their market doesn't require it.

Follow these basic facts through and you can see that a cheaper EV is preferably to an expensive hydrogen van. This lowers the demand for hydrogen refuelling stations to the point where rolling out a full country wide network is not financially viable.

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[Steve N Tracy]

I am suggesting the whole van could be built that way, not just the box on the back.

A Class motorhomes are built like that already.

 

[Gromett]

For now. Fuel cell EVs (powered by hydrogen) have a range of cheaper approaches to generating hydrogen in development. A recent report from Ballard and Deloitte China concludes that FCEVs will be cheaper to run than BEVs (battery powered EV) within a decade. The power density is much higher - so range will always be much better and similar to petrol/diesel, as well as other obvious advantages like distribution and decommissioning. If the relative cost is addressed then moving away from BEVs is a no brainer. Currently Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are prioritising FCEV development. That'll be the Toyota that makes more cars than anyone else, and Hyundai who are third.

Physics dictates that the minimum energy required to extract 1KG of hydrogen is 39KWh. This is the base level and if you do the maths at 100% efficiency then you need 3X the amount of electricity to give the equivalent of direct charging a vehicle.

 

[68c]

A Class motorhomes are built like that already.

No there not, most A Class vans have the same front chassis and lower cab section as any other van. For electric to work the weight needs to be drastically reduced. Even fifty year old airliners use composite, particularly in the passenger cabin. One man can easily lift a three person seat assembly, the whole toilet assembly is also lightweight. We need to get away from this MFI plywood construction and stop lugging around so much weight.

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[joe and sue]

Looks like i will need to find a couple of spare 2.8 engines for my Ducato based MH & learn how to re-condition and keep them going for myself. !!

 

[Steve N Tracy]

No there not, most A Class vans have the same front chassis and lower cab section as any other van. For electric to work the weight needs to be drastically reduced. Even fifty year old airliners use composite, particularly in the passenger cabin. One man can easily lift a three person seat assembly, the whole toilet assembly is also lightweight. We need to get away from this MFI plywood construction and stop lugging around so much weight.

What you get is just about as little as you can get away with and still have somewhere to mount the steering controls, brake pedal and wheels etc.
Even full electric will still need these thing to function.

 

[Gromett]

No there not, most A Class vans have the same front chassis and lower cab section as any other van. For electric to work the weight needs to be drastically reduced. Even fifty year old airliners use composite, particularly in the passenger cabin. One man can easily lift a three person seat assembly, the whole toilet assembly is also lightweight. We need to get away from this MFI plywood construction and stop lugging around so much weight.

You are correct. Most current EV vans are a staging post towards full EV vans. The manufacturers are limiting the cost of production by using their existing factories and presses to make EV powered traditionally constructed vans. This won't last long though because it is a compromise.
New companies such as arrival are building EV's from the ground up taking full advantage of the new technology. These vans will have longer range and be cheaper to produce than the kludge of ICE vans with EV tech grafted on. This will force the traditional manufacturers to take the final steps if they want to stay in the market.

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[Gromett]

View attachment 465238
What you get is just about as little as you can get away with and still have somewhere to mount the steering controls, brake pedal and wheels etc.
Even full electric will still need these thing to function.

You are correct. New made from the ground up EV's have a skateboard construction. They lose an awful lot of the structural stuff around the front that is required to handle the engine/gearbox mounts etc.

They will look more like this;

 

[Gromett]

This is the Rivian Skateboard for instance.

 

[JaG]

Don't worry about it. This one from 1935 is still being driven around so my 2009 Autotrail will be as well.

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[Nasher]

You are correct. New made from the ground up EV's have a skateboard construction. They lose an awful lot of the structural stuff around the front that is required to handle the engine/gearbox mounts etc.

They will look more like this;

View attachment 465242

This is the Rivian Skateboard for instance.

View attachment 465244

This is me on my skateboard - no leccy or gas

 

[Steve N Tracy]

Don't worry about it. This one from 1935 is still being driven around so my 2009 Autotrail will be as well.

View attachment 465256

The diffirence is the 1935 model will propably run on the mothballs or Jeyes fluid WW2 fuel substitutes, try doing that with a modern engine lol

 

[SpeedyDux]

View attachment 465238
What you get is just about as little as you can get away with and still have somewhere to mount the steering controls, brake pedal and wheels etc.
Even full electric will still need these thing to function.

It's quite remarkable how an A-Class can resemble that picture ^^^ after a big crash as well as before the conversion.

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