No foreign holidays...... until August? (1 Viewer)

[sallylillian]

<Broken link removed>

 

[simbadog]

Go to Falmouth with the other 12 Million people!

 

[lou020]

mines booked for the train out on the 19th August. .......if there's still a train.

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[Coastal Cruiser.]

Hopefully they are right, we are thinking Germany/Italy September for 3 weeks then Greece for 4 weeks Xmas/New Year.

Just have to go with it and hope it opens up.

 

[Richard n Ann]

I'm sure they'll find a new strain to be frightened of by then

 

[Lenny HB]

Not planning on going until mid September, hopefully will be allowed by then.

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[glenn2926]

The article was in the Sun!!! Enough said.

 

[LesW]

The article was in the Sun!!! Enough said.

It's actually in most of the online media.

 

[glenn2926]

It's actually in most of the online media.

So media, not from the people that actually make decisions?

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[suavecarve]

June 20th

 

[Jonny1953]

Why do the press/media always try to speculate about what might happen and quote "government sources", then when it doesn't happen they say Boris has done another U turn.

I prefer to ignore this BS and wait for official announcements

 

[glenn2926]

Why do the press/media always try to speculate about what might happen and quote "government sources", then when it doesn't happen they say Boris has done another U turn.

I prefer to ignore this BS and wait for official announcements

There’ll always be those that love to post bad news. It seems they like it.

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[chaser]

June 20th

Is this your prediction of opening up, or when you have booked?

 

[suavecarve]

Is this your prediction of opening up, or when you have booked?

When I have booked.
I havent looked at precisely when I think Europe will open up, but i have time on my hands, today to look at it from last year's figures, and I am not too concerned about them at the moment and I monitor their figures really quite sadly intently.
Quick guess would be late May which will be poo pooed by all the newspaper readers.
It will be a lot easier to predict when France and Germany start descending for when they open up their borders, as for predicting what HMG will do, I am less confident about. It will only take about a month for them to descend from 1,000 to 50 (the figure which was acceptable last year) and even at their current appalling figures they will top out at 750 ish (at the moment). But I could be wrong.
Italy is looking like the first country to have reached its plateau so I am keeping a good eye on their figures, and monitoring Portugal after their lockdown ends (5th April) will also help paint a picture

I would be far more concerned about September bookings, based upon expected low figures in the summer and the european youths giving it large with over confidence, like last year, in clubs and spreading it around and causing increased infections from August holidays, because of the lack of jabs. I think alternative plans may need to be considered aiming for safer countries then.

 

[Stewart J]

Malvern Show in August then down for the Ferry to Santander fingers crossed

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[Grianan]

Is there more in the news today? I’m assuming summer is a write off. I’ll head in October if there’s no Q14. Otherwise will have to wait until next summer.

 

[sallylillian]

There’ll always be those that love to post bad news. It seems they like it.

I do not "like it". I am a half full kind of guy. There are those that prefer to deny bad news of course. However taking a concensus of news enables you to get an advantage of altering a plan before the deniers finally accept the inevitable and reduce your choices. I suggest you press ignore for me that will save you from getting any more bad news from me.

 

[jongood]

IMO they re flying a kite again to see how much of a fight we put up.

AFAICS when we get chance to go take all that you need with a view to it being a while untill you want to come back or get the most value out of the fine/quarentine. I can see the balkans and Turkey being very popular to get around the 90 days this autumn.

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[sallylillian]

The article was in the Sun!!! Enough said.

It was in the Evening Standard to be Pedantic.

 

[Cheshirecat57]

The article was in the Sun!!! Enough said.

Or the “No Sun” as it is now re-named

 

[glenn2926]

Or the “No Sun” as it is now re-named

Just had another look for it and it seems to have vanished. Didn’t see any mention on other news sites either. Strange!!

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[Howard B]

Have a return ferry to Spain booked for early October. Debating whether to put the crossing back to 2022. Already decided to put off a motorcycle trip to Normady whic ws booked for early September.

 

[suavecarve]

When I have booked.
I havent looked at precisely when I think Europe will open up, but i have time on my hands, today to look at it from last year's figures, and I am not too concerned about them at the moment and I monitor their figures really quite sadly intently.
Quick guess would be late May which will be poo pooed by all the newspaper readers.
It will be a lot easier to predict when France and Germany start descending for when they open up their borders, as for predicting what HMG will do, I am less confident about. It will only take about a month for them to descend from 1,000 to 50 (the figure which was acceptable last year) and even at their current appalling figures they will top out at 750 ish (at the moment). But I could be wrong.
Italy is looking like the first country to have reached its plateau so I am keeping a good eye on their figures, and monitoring Portugal after their lockdown ends (5th April) will also help paint a picture

I would be far more concerned about September bookings, based upon expected low figures in the summer and the european youths giving it large with over confidence, like last year, in clubs and spreading it around and causing increased infections from August holidays, because of the lack of jabs. I think alternative plans may need to be considered aiming for safer countries then.

Taken a quick gander and last year it took 7 weeks to 2 months from the peak of deaths to get to low enough infections for Europe to open their borders on 15th June last year.
We are yet to reach the peak of deaths for Europe this year, however, the rise and decline of infections for the "Kent" variation is significantly steeper than last year's.
I see Italy and potentially Greece with maybe Austria as the first ones to plateau this year and there is a bit of an argument that may be plateauing or beginning to now.
If you looked at Portugal, Uk, Irelands descent it took about 3 weeks to lose 1,000 + (which involved lockdowns) from February into March.
Portugal are currently extremely close to 50/100,000 having been at 1,600 less than 2 months ago, and although lockdown is the major factor, I, along with some scientists, believe the warmer weather, change in humidity, more outside socialising, will bring the rate down further. Now that part is where it is opinion based upon what you want to believe.
The end of May is about 2 months away and I would hazard a guess that as soon as descents in rates begin to appear, it will be 6 weeks before Europe opens, which I suspect will be end of May. By Europe opening, I mean their border available to us to enter (with a £5,000 UK fine atm)
Having got to attempt to comprehend the HMG decision making process over the course of the last year, I would suspect we wont be allowed to leave for at least a fortnight, possibly 5 weeks after that as they may want to see the infection rate of Europe after it opens its borders.
I also expect some clamouring of countries like Greece and Portugal (if their figures are low enough) trying to entice UK tourists.
I am having a D plan in the making of getting to Portugal as that may be a place to aim for (atm)

But a lot will depend on what is said on April 12th, as I (my opinion) think HMG will go with the traffic light countries again, as I cant see what harm it will do if Iceland with their average 9 infections per day accept us as tourists.

That is my view, at the moment, based upon history and trends.

 

[mitzimad]

having been criticized for leaving every decision late i think they will hang out the return to overseas travel as long as they can which is why they have brought in the heavy fine my bet is next year

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[suavecarve]

having been criticized for leaving every decision late i think they will hang out the return to overseas travel as long as they can which is why they have brought in the heavy fine my bet is next year

The heavy fine was probably introduced as it may be illegal when figures are lower, to actually stop people gong abroad rather than making it difficult to go abroad.

Or a more cynical person, might suggest it was brought in and the following was said, "Its all right dad, you can go to Greece but you may be fined up to £5,000"

I would agree they will make it last as long as it is nearly justifiable. I just see it being earlier than most.

 

[orridge]

Hopefully if true won't include Scotland and we can head up there in July.

 

[busby]

Taken a quick gander and last year it took 7 weeks to 2 months from the peak of deaths to get to low enough infections for Europe to open their borders on 15th June last year.
We are yet to reach the peak of deaths for Europe this year, however, the rise and decline of infections for the "Kent" variation is significantly steeper than last year's.
I see Italy and potentially Greece with maybe Austria as the first ones to plateau this year and there is a bit of an argument that may be plateauing or beginning to now.
If you looked at Portugal, Uk, Irelands descent it took about 3 weeks to lose 1,000 + (which involved lockdowns) from February into March.
Portugal are currently extremely close to 50/100,000 having been at 1,600 less than 2 months ago, and although lockdown is the major factor, I, along with some scientists, believe the warmer weather, change in humidity, more outside socialising, will bring the rate down further. Now that part is where it is opinion based upon what you want to believe.
The end of May is about 2 months away and I would hazard a guess that as soon as descents in rates begin to appear, it will be 6 weeks before Europe opens, which I suspect will be end of May. By Europe opening, I mean their border available to us to enter (with a £5,000 UK fine atm)
Having got to attempt to comprehend the HMG decision making process over the course of the last year, I would suspect we wont be allowed to leave for at least a fortnight, possibly 5 weeks after that as they may want to see the infection rate of Europe after it opens its borders.
I also expect some clamouring of countries like Greece and Portugal (if their figures are low enough) trying to entice UK tourists.
I am having a D plan in the making of getting to Portugal as that may be a place to aim for (atm)

But a lot will depend on what is said on April 12th, as I (my opinion) think HMG will go with the traffic light countries again, as I cant see what harm it will do if Iceland with their average 9 infections per day accept us as tourists.

That is my view, at the moment, based upon history and trends.

Hope your correct,,ferry optimistically booked to Santander for 18 th May,,,,I can always change it nearer the date for free.BUSBY.

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[gradyp]

Malvern Show in August then down for the Ferry to Santander fingers crossed

Im Norfolk show in August then down for the Ferry to Bilboa , fingers and toes crossed

 

[Gellyneck]

Hopefully if true won't include Scotland and we can head up there in July.

Just a heads up, remember July is the Scottish school holidays so plan accordingly. We've got the whole month pre-booked.

 

[Captain Yoghurtpot]

Waiting until spring ‘22.
Then on the Parafin Pigeon to Spain for a bit.
Motorhome is staying in the UK and will be used for the odd days out when allowed.
My choice only and I wish everyone else happy travels.

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