Covid-19 exponential spread

[nicholsong]

In case there are those that do not understand the dangers of the spread of Covid-19, because people are ignoring the very real threat of exponential spread, then please read this article.

www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

It should make the deniers of the effectiveness of the quarantine, mask and SD requirements think again, and hopefully act differently by adhering to the restrictions.

Geoff

 

[ManTheVan]

It’s a good article. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Garfields]

www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

It should make the deniers of the effectiveness of the quarantine, mask and SD requirements think again, and hopefully act differently by adhering to the restrictions.

Sorry the deniers will just claim its part of the conspiracy
If you say its not a conspiracy its because you have been taken in by it or are part of it.

 

[John Barrett]

There is nothing new in that rather sensational article for people who understand compound interest. Given the number of mortgages and savings accounts around surely most people would be aware of exponential growth?

 

[nicholsong]

There is nothing new in that rather sensational article for people who understand compound interest. Given the number of mortgages and savings accounts around surely most people would be aware of exponential growth?

Sadly I think not judging by my experience in financial srvices.of the average investor. Anyway gross compound interest is not achievable because of the charges the financial instituions levy which means the net compound under-achieves. Thus they do not corelate it to a true exponential increase.

Geoff

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[Sandancers]

There was a report the other day, I think from Imperial College, who have been doing anti-body studies on the UK population. They calculated that something like 6% of the UK had been infected with CV_19, 13% in London. 3.4 million people in total.

Given that many people do not show symptoms then you'd expect that exponential growth (yes I understand it) would be so rapid from any source that it would be impossible to contain outbreaks.

Yet we see time and again that outbreaks are NOT rising exponentially.

Look at Leicester, we were told that young people were spreading it so there was a partial lockdown imposed. Do you think all the young people of Leicester said "Oh we had better stay in and be rigorous about SD if we ever have to go out" ? OK some might, but I'll bet many didn't therefore the virus should have entered a new exponential growth. But it didn't infections have levelled off.

So, in a lab condition exponential growth may well occur, but I'd suggest real live presents enough natural barriers to the virus that with normal, not draconian, precautions exponential growth will not occur.

Or turn to a real life example, India, how long has the virus been present there ? Why has it not wiped out a lot of the population given their close proximity living. They have had 2.5 million confirmed cases since March, that is not exponential growth and as far as I know their "lockdown" was patchy at best.