Book up and get away while you CAN!!!!!!! (1 Viewer)

[SpeedyDux]

There has never been any point in a lockdown beyond what is necessary to remain within NHS capacity and to help protect the vulnerable. It was never possible to assume a vaccine would be developed so plans could never be made on the basis of immunisation. With no long-term solution in sight the only option was to contain the hit on the NHS. I've assumed that within the planning allowance was made for the numbers unlikely to comply with any directive and for the number of essential workers likely to be exposed. Having NHS capacity available for the foreseeable future means that the slow trickle of people exposed to the virus can be treated and therefore the death rate can be kept as low as possible. Allowing more and more freedom as time goes on is acceptable as long as NHS headroom remains. Nothing other than their own efforts will prevent vulnerable age groups from being affected. Social distancing within essential businesses (mainly food and medical outlets) is just about all the help older people can, or should, expect.

Without seeing the variables used in the epidemiology modelling relied on by SAGE it is impossible for us to know what percentage of non-compliance with the restrictions (and SD) was assumed initially, and how high such percentage was assumed to increase over time. They took advice from experts in human behaviour. My take is that it could have been 20% non-compliance at the beginning, but by now they must be modelling the outcome of over 40% non-compliance (at least in the under-30 age group). I understood that some scientific advisers have grave doubts about the latest relaxation of restrictions and inevitability of spikes.

The government's contract with the consortium to manufacture 15,000 new ventilators for the NHS remains in place. The critical shortage will still be the available number of qualified NHS front line staff. Goodbye again to all the other NHS clinical services that haven't yet managed to catch up with the waiting lists and cancellations prior to 23 March when these other very important clinical services had to shut down. A second wave will be catastrophic for patients on those waiting lists including those who were added in the past 3 months. Urgent cases may be put back another 12 months if/when there is a second wave. Right now there are no appointments available for me and I was told it could be December before I can get an appointment just for scans, followed by another wait of months to see a Consultant. A&E was very quiet in early or mid June but apparently it is back to pre-Covid attendance levels.

Imagine the impact on the UK economy of a second shutdown of all except food and pharmacy. There must be a limit to the willingness of the international Bond markets to lend more to the UK Treasury at these absurdly low interest rates. At some point reality will kick in.

 

[Langtoftlad]

Random musings

• Even if the shock horror reports & photos in the media were replicated around every pub - which they weren't - most people seem to be outside. Experience has taught that the protests and the thronging beaches haven't caused a spike, so why would this?
• Despite the 'crowds', this is a very very tiny proportion of the population. The vast majority are still practising SD, most of the time.
• I can't find it now, but I saw a link which said something like lockdown needed in the region of 60% compliance to be effective - at the time the UK compliance was in the low 80%

My conclusion, won't make any difference.
YMMV

 

[maison]

Media, both newspapers and TV had to have something to preach doom and gloom about following the lifting of restrictions.

With potentially hundreds of reporters looking for a story what did they find?

Misleading pictures of heavy traffic on one part of the M5 approaching some kind of incident, breakdown or roadworks.

Pictures of some idiots crowding a street in SoHo.

The majority of the re-opening seems to have passed by with people generally exhibiting restraint and common sense.

However, seeing the scenes in SoHo reinforced our intention to stay away from cities for a while. Rural France here we come, travel restrictions permitting.

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[Bluemanc100]

Why not go to Scotland? As for going down south, have you seen the pictures of down south? That’s the last direction I want to go. The southerners don’t seem to grasp social distancing at all. Go north as you planned. Whisky, fewer people,whisky, bigger mountains, whisky, more wildlife, and did I mention whisky .

Have you seen the Scots on the border abusing visitors? I know these people are not in the majority but they do make you think twice.. and sadly I wouldn’t thank you for a whisky even if I was dying of thirst

 

[Fraggle 22]

At the moment it is 0.6% of population have covid, so 1 in 3,000. It is still unlikely that you will meet someone who has it. Unless you go to large gatherings or are unlucky.

Listenjng to Sky News just, Sir David King head of independent SAGE has said that at the current rate of infection more than 20,000 more people will die. That's a rate of 3000 people a week(I think) while Scotland and Wales will have zero.

 

[gus-lopez]

I dread the prospect of people arriving from the USA where the problem seems to be growing

Did yo see the private hey yesterday flew from states to Sardinia with 10 aboard .All held & told to leave including a local woman. Jet took off after some hours & landed in the UK.Why do they let them in?

The exemptions include postmen and truck drivers......WHY ?

You left out bin men & sewerage workers.

Don’t think you can come to Scotland “They” are waiting at the border. Apparently taking registrations of Caravanners and MH for the follow up visit. View attachment 404327

I was actually taught tha anything in the road between kerns in towns was fair game. On roads with no pavements anything goes.
Why would you A) even stop for them & B) if forced to stop ,not physically attack them ? There are too many people who aren't normal like me.

Exactly. I just wondered why you singled out drivers and postmen.
The ones advocating lockdown need to know that if we do it (as some call it properly) there are no exemptions. No doctors, no nurses, no police, no ambulance crews, no fire crews, none of the other services.
The people advocating proper lockdown don’t seem to realise this

You are mixing up "lockdown" with "quarantine" .We are talking about quarantine. whereby wy are people vbeing exempted? they shouldn't be ? If they have a problem with essential workers likely to be quarantined on return then you do not allow them to leave.
Lockdown as we had here , whereby people are actually staying inside there own properties with only a few reasons allowed out & then only 1 person, was also only enforced on those who were not "essential " workers.
Police, firemen, shopworers, bin men, any type of heath professional delivery & fuel delivery drivers were not allowed to stop work nor take any type of holiday. Even if in contact with a plague monster ,back to work after 14 days .After 7 if you actually were found to have it

keep it locked down and put another 3m people out of work claiming benefits?

How about get them all back working before allowing anyone to go out ?

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[chaser]

It's in the news and on here that pubs have to open for the people who run them and serve in for their jobs, but why ? Are pubs desperately needed just to keep folks in work, they aren't really NEEDED at all to keep the country running, hard luck if the staff don't have a job, but why do we need people getting pi... And spreading disease just to keep folks working in something we can all manage without and probably be better off too.

 

[glenn2926]

No I haven’t. Please show

See post 39.

 

[Landy Andy]

Oh, the one photo of London. So that must be the entire south of the UK

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[Kannon Fodda]

The economy relies upon a simple principle that each year we will make more, sell more, buy more, use more (clearly incompatible with environmental needs but let's not go there here). By invoking lockdown, the whole cycle was broken. That also means taxes, essential to pay for service such as NHS, aren't being collected, and as we know various relief schemes are borrowing funds from somewhere to fund NHS< furlough and all sorts of economic measures.

Furlough was a stop gap measure, as have been some other schemes. But they aren't stopping the mass redundancies that are now occurring as even previously viable business knows it can't recover. Unemployment will rise and be a problem for a few years to come, directly as a result of lockdown. But if businesses aren't able to re-open without restriction, the pain to come is going to be far worse. Your local highstreet which was already having a hard time, is going to be quite empty in the next couple of years.

Even the so called local lockdowns will be highly disruptive and create more uncertainty. No business can plan in such a scenario. If the opening of post of this thread is to be believed it implies don't bother planning for August, we won't get through July

It is harsh and unwelcome to know that people have and will still die of Covid-19. |I say this as someone who should fear Coronavirus as although I'm not in a vulnerable group, being mid 50s the consequences of infection can become severe, and I also know I can readily see a normal cold turn in to a chest infection. But the lockdown processes have also now postponed many other essential medical treatments that will probably result in premature deaths from other diseases that were previously treatable such as many cancers, diabetes complications and so on. Modern medicine is good, but realistically should we expect to be able to protect everyone, and should that be at the expense of the welfare of the wider population who might be perceived at less risk?

We have been trying to confine people to their homes for over 3 months. Some of us are fortunate to have larger spaces, but spare a thought for those in more overcrowded conditions, especially flats that may not even have a balcony. You'd be desperate to get out. Travelling to Bournemouth might be the extreme result, but when a high proportion of the population have also been sat at home on Furlough (far more doing nothing than on a normal summer's holiday period), there will be more going to some places than expected, especially when at that time, there wasn't the hospitality venues open to create leisure attractions. There are a minority that abuse situations (as in any walk of life), but most who have gone out, even in crowded spaces, have tried to respect the rules.

Many have been trying to observe social distancing, but to be frank, it is often impossible. It didn't work even in the largest supermarkets (despite queuing systems) as you still had to get past staff shelf stackers, and those who were more intent on their mobile phone conversation than what was going in the trolley. It didn't work just going even for a country walk as most footpaths, towpaths, or whatever weren't 3m wide allowing people in the opposite was to pass. With social distancing now at 1+ meters, there will be inevitable impression that people are, legitimately, more crowded together.

Somehow the world has to move on. I wonder whether, in a few years of hindsight, we are going to have many saying that lockdowns were more damaging to the overall population welfare. We need to look forward, rather than backwards, and work out how to recover and find our new normality.

 

[steve 6644]

There has never been any point in a lockdown beyond what is necessary to remain within NHS capacity and to help protect the vulnerable. It was never possible to assume a vaccine would be developed so plans could never be made on the basis of immunisation. With no long-term solution in sight the only option was to contain the hit on the NHS. I've assumed that within the planning allowance was made for the numbers unlikely to comply with any directive and for the number of essential workers likely to be exposed. Having NHS capacity available for the foreseeable future means that the slow trickle of people exposed to the virus can be treated and therefore the death rate can be kept as low as possible. Allowing more and more freedom as time goes on is acceptable as long as NHS headroom remains. Nothing other than their own efforts will prevent vulnerable age groups from being affected. Social distancing within essential businesses (mainly food and medical outlets) is just about all the help older people can, or should, expect.

Spot on.

 

[The general]

What makes you think they are "local" to Dorset.They come, visit then go back to wherever.IF they have got / caught virus it will have gone back to where they came from leaving bits along the way, so no spikes.Sure you are unlikely to meet anyone with the virus just the same as you would be "unlucky " to die from it.
If figures are to be believed if everyone got it only about 600 k would die in this country. So in the words of Clint, do you feel lucky

PUNK

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[glenn2926]

Oh, the one photo of London. So that must be the entire south of the UK

There are many pictures of the road into the south west showing gridlock but hey if that’s what you want go for it.

 

[Garfields]

Have you seen the Scots on the border abusing visitors? I know these people are not in the majority but they do make you think twice.. and sadly I wouldn’t thank you for a whisky even if I was dying of thirst

Looked like eight people with some flags and a couple of poster
T***ts true but hardly "abusing visitors" as the Sun reported it
I can't comment on the report that there has been a rush on pitchforks though

 

[Carol]

With Sue on the vulnerable list we have still not made any firm plans to venture out in the MH. We would prefer to have a site with facilities that are open because (to the disgust of many on the forum) we’d prefer not to use our MH toilet and shower..

I’m actually in two minds whether to sell up before we really even got going but we have decided to wait to see some reviews from people who are starting to venture out.

Our first trip post my retirement was going to be a tour of Scotland but that looks to be out so maybe we’ll head for somewhere down south when the moment seems right.. we Love Northumberland but had planned to incorporate that at the end of our Scotland trip..

Don't give up on your dream things will find a level in time and I think a motorhome is your safest way of having a holiday, and take no notice of those who criticise how you use your shower and toilet its no ones business but yours.
Good luck with getting out again.

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[Carol]

Isn't it strange how we all look at things differently, me being older lady and in the vulnerable category feel it's up to me to decide what I feel comfortable doing after assessment of the risks, I think the government put in place provisions for us to have time to educate ourselves about this virus, gave us 3 months with some pay in many cases and now the country needs to move into the next phase of living again, this is where the individual comes into it unlike at the beginning of the outbreak we now know what to do to stay as safe as possible. With that in mind I'm beginning to do my own shopping again planning trips where allowed in the Motorhome.
I'm afraid the government can't be expected to keep locked down for years we could get knocked over by a bus have a heart attack so many things but we have to carry on living all be it with new awareness eigher that or watch our country come to a halt, then everyone will be complaining about that.
No matter what happens your dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.

 

[Landy Andy]

Well said Carol

 

[joe and sue]

We are about 2 weeks behind most countries in Europe - apart from a few local spikes - no problem - please feel sorry for the press so desperately searching for a shock horror headline... in the meantime try and get used to being out of house arrest...

UK is about 2 weeks behind Europe and USA is about 3 weeks behind UK !!!
Can somebody explain to me just how this virus can only travel westwards, i.e from China, through Asia, India, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, UK then lastly America,. Without spreading eastwards as well. Strange that America is the last major landmass to get the virus.
Unless of course that is the way the Chinese Government / Financial Moguls (or are they the same people) planned it !!
Joe

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[gus-lopez]

There are many pictures of the road into the south west showing gridlock but hey if that’s what you want go for it.

But the only place the photo's were taken is immediately before J 30/31 & where the road works are.

 

[SpeedyDux]

Random musings

• Even if the shock horror reports & photos in the media were replicated around every pub - which they weren't - most people seem to be outside. Experience has taught that the protests and the thronging beaches haven't caused a spike, so why would this?
• Despite the 'crowds', this is a very very tiny proportion of the population. The vast majority are still practising SD, most of the time.
• I can't find it now, but I saw a link which said something like lockdown needed in the region of 60% compliance to be effective - at the time the UK compliance was in the low 80%

My conclusion, won't make any difference.
YMMV

Reported on 2nd July in our local Post:

A further three coronavirus cases have been recorded in Bristol yesterday (Wednesday, July 1) bringing our total to 729.

And for the first time in 22 days, every district surrounding Bristol has also seen a rise in positive-lab results for Covid-19.

Both Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire have not seen an increase since Tuesday, June 9 before today.

Public Health England's figures show South Gloucestershire now has 407 following a rise of one.

While Bath and North East Somerset also recorded a further case today, bringing the district's total to 239.

This rise (I wouldn't call it a spike yet) in local Covid cases seems linked to the 2 weekends of BLM protests in Bristol, illegal raves and street parties, and the sun-worshipping crowds that flocked together in Weston-super-Mare and also at local beauty spots beside the river Avon.

 

[Speve]

There are many pictures of the road into the south west showing gridlock but hey if that’s what you want go for it.

I think that there a people that believe all Southerners live in London and tar us all with the same brush?
we live in the South rural Wiltshire one of the safest places to be no sign of that behaviour here

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[MR. FUSION]

A few stupid fools are going to spoil it for thousands....

<Broken link removed>

Another TOTAL lock down forthcoming.... you mark my words...

Sounds like a great night out.......

 

[Jasz]

The young of this country have made a hugely significant sacrifice for the older citizens. The young have always been at negligible risk of anything happening to them, and yet we have have all racked up enormous debts that will re-shape the prosperity of their entire lives and their families futures.
Many of them have had businesses and careers ruined, some have had some of the most important years of their lives (GCSE/A levels/College years) severely disrupted ...and they have done this willingly, without complaint (so far) and whilst the virus was killing so many people - it was right and proper that they do.

But at some point, the older generation has to say enough, and let the completely unaffected generation get on with saving whats left from the wreckage. I know we'll never all agree exactly on this - and thats what makes this forum so engaging - the huge variety of opinions - but If not now, then when?

Before we criticise young people any more, and ask them to make yet more sacrifices, we must outline the alternative, and it has to be credible ?

America seems to be proving that the young are at risk, in some states the average age of people in hospital with it are in the low 30s!

 

[mitzimad]

UK is about 2 weeks behind Europe and USA is about 3 weeks behind UK !!!
Can somebody explain to me just how this virus can only travel westwards, i.e from China, through Asia, India, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, UK then lastly America,. Without spreading eastwards as well. Strange that America is the last major landmass to get the virus.
Unless of course that is the way the Chinese Government / Financial Moguls (or are they the same people) planned it !!
Joe

im no expert but dont the winds tend to run east to west

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[glenn2926]

America seems to be proving that the young are at risk, in some states the average age of people in hospital with it are in the low 30s!

They mostly weigh about twice as much as they should. Obesity is one of the main underlying health problems associated with deaths from Coronavirus.

 

[joe and sue]

im no expert but dont the winds tend to run east to west

not on tonights weather forecast, coming in from atlantic, west to east

 

[haganap]

I just get amazed by these stories.

I'm back from a nice meal at TGI fridays, On Saturday I went to the pub and it was great. It was amazing to be sat outside watching people trying to enjoy themselves again.

doe's no one think it's odd that the media have stopped reporting the stats anymore?

16 deaths yesterday and 340+ new infections.
155 today being Monday always the highest and just 539 new cases.

Death rates now back to where they have been for the past 5 years,
We are now in a similar position to where we were prior to lockdown. That was before anyone knew what Social DIstancing even meant. That when you couldn't get a test if you bought one.

I am out, I am not letting my life be destroyed by this virus, I will go out, take precautions and enjoy myself. I simply refuse to be caged anymore.

Maybe an age thing, maybe my horrific experience facing the virus head on "then" and "now" . It may come back it may not. If it does, we will be better prepared.

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[St Piran]

I just get amazed by these stories.

I'm back from a nice meal at TGI fridays, On Saturday I went to the pub and it was great. It was amazing to be sat outside watching people trying to enjoy themselves again.

doe's no one think it's odd that the media have stopped reporting the stats anymore?

16 deaths yesterday and 340+ new infections.
155 today being Monday always the highest and just 539 new cases.

Death rates now back to where they have been for the past 5 years,
We are now in a similar position to where we were prior to lockdown. That was before anyone knew what Social DIstancing even meant. That when you couldn't get a test if you bought one.

I am out, I am not letting my life be destroyed by this virus, I will go out, take precautions and enjoy myself. I simply refuse to be caged anymore.

Maybe an age thing, maybe my horrific experience facing the virus head on "then" and "now" . It may come back it may not. If it does, we will be better prepared.

Agree ^^^^

 

[jessthedog]

Did anyone notice that Scotland are following England on air bridges from 10th July, but are requiring a 14 day quarantine if you go to Spain?