2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan? (1 Viewer)

[MR. FUSION]

You make 2 statements of fact there that are wrong.
1) Most of which will be soon in other countries... I am guessing that you mean Scotland
2) They will make up for lost oil revenue by inflated electricity prices.

Here are a few facts to counter your claims.

Most offshore wind farms are not being built in scotland.

View attachment 443254

Yup that looks like most are being built in Scotland.

And as for them pushing the price up as punishment if they left. Have you heard of market economics?

Its easier to fill in the gaps like this, so where there is no marine protection zone there will be windturbines. Almost like the last UK wilderness has been industrialised for green energy.

 

[Gromett]

Its easier to fill in the gaps like this, so where there is no marine protection zone there will be windturbines. Almost like the last UK wilderness has been industrialised for green energy.

View attachment 443316

Wind turbines and marine protection zones are not mutually exclusive. In fact there is a study that shows that fish and other marine species thrive around wind turbines due to fishing being prevented. Fishermen can't fish near turbines for obvious reasons and the lesser known reason that drag nets can't be used due to undersea cables.

 

[Gromett]

How do wind farms affect ocean ecosystems? – DW – 11/22/2017

Some scientists say wind turbine areas are like artificial reefs, creating sanctuaries for marine life. But plenty of questions regarding their environmental impact remain.

www.dw.com

Off the Scandinavian coast, scientist have watched some of the underwater turbine foundations gradually transform into artificial reefs, attracting mollusks and small fish that feed on plankton. This magnet effect goes right up the food chain to larger fish, seals and dolphins.
Some scientists have described these zones as de facto marine sanctuaries because fishing is often limited directly around the turbines.
Seafloor ecosystems may even be recovering in areas where fishermen have "pulverized" the seabed by dragging heavy nets along the seafloor for 100 years, said Jason Hall-Spencer, a marine biologist at the University of Plymouth.

When you compare the temporary effects of the construction phase against the long term damage CO2 is causing (ocean acidification) and oil spills cause. The temporary effects of the construction of wind turbines is far better.

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[MR. FUSION]

How do wind farms affect ocean ecosystems? – DW – 11/22/2017

Some scientists say wind turbine areas are like artificial reefs, creating sanctuaries for marine life. But plenty of questions regarding their environmental impact remain.

www.dw.com

When you compare the temporary effects of the construction phase against the long term damage CO2 is causing (ocean acidification) and oil spills cause. The temporary effects of the construction of wind turbines is far better.

Nope, gulls & other wildlife will suffer. The offshore bird surveys I have heard about for windfarm sites rely on snapshot surveys. What about all the Geese and other wild life that fly at night ???

 

[Gromett]

Nope, gulls & other wildlife will suffer. The offshore bird surveys I have heard about for windfarm sites rely on snapshot surveys. What about all the Geese and other wild life that fly at night ???

Do you know how many birds are killed due to global warming and environmental impact caused by the fossil fuel industry? Have you seen how small an area wind farms cover compared to the vastness of the ocean? Then look at how many birds are killed by a single oil spill and how long the impact of this lasts for? There is seriously no comparison.

This is old. But the comparison is worth looking at again.

Putin: Is he right about wind turbines and bird deaths?

The Russian president has warned against too much reliance on wind power.

www.bbc.co.uk

A Broken Link Removed estimated that wind farms were responsible for about 0.3 bird deaths for every 1GWh of electricity generated, compared with 5.2 deaths per 1GWh caused by fossil-fuelled power stations.

Both pale into insignificance when you compare that to the household moggy though.

 

[Off da Grid]

Pretty sure it’s only the sale of cars that are to be banned

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[Gromett]

Pretty sure it’s only the sale of cars that are to be banned

No, it is cars and vans.

 

[MR. FUSION]

Do you know how many birds are killed due to global warming and environmental impact caused by the fossil fuel industry? Have you seen how small an area wind farms cover compared to the vastness of the ocean? Then look at how many birds are killed by a single oil spill and how long the impact of this lasts for? There is seriously no comparison.

This is old. But the comparison is worth looking at again.

Putin: Is he right about wind turbines and bird deaths?

The Russian president has warned against too much reliance on wind power.

www.bbc.co.uk

Both pale into insignificance when you compare that to the household moggy though.

Well the green dream has crashed to a halt this morning. Most of those windturbines will be on cold weather maintainence cycles as well, using de-icers on the blades & running cycles to keep the fluids flowing etc. So we will definitely be in a wind turbines near negative output situation as thousands of them draw power out of the grid for the above.

 

[MR. FUSION]

No, it is cars and vans.

Let's hope battery technology has stepped up to the plate. So we can go and visit what was the last wilderness in Europe in Northern Norway but is now being opened up for rare earth mining for batteries, am I the only one who sees the irony of this ???

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[Gromett]

Well the green dream has crashed to a halt this morning. Most of those windturbines will be on cold weather maintainence cycles as well, using de-icers on the blades & running cycles to keep the fluids flowing etc. So we will definitely be in a wind turbines near negative output situation as thousands of them draw power out of the grid for the above.


View attachment 443562

I was expecting it, I was waiting for it, and here we go. You never dissapoint MR. FUSION

NO ONE has ever said wind blows all the time. It's almost like you check all the time just to say "see"

This is why I keep banging on about grid scale storage.

 

[tonyidle]

Gromett Have you heard of any planning for street-level (not necessarily on street) charging? By which I mean infrastructure for groups of dwellings. It occurs to me that very local grid storage at the substation could be used rather than re-cabling. Most heavy at-home charging will occur over limited periods (1700 onwards) and taper rapidly towards midnight leaving the other 18 hours or so for grid storage recovery. In answer to other concerns about charging at the roadside I believe that will need to be wireless in many locations.

 

[Gromett]

Gromett Have you heard of any planning for street-level (not necessarily on street) charging? By which I mean infrastructure for groups of dwellings. It occurs to me that very local grid storage at the substation could be used rather than re-cabling. Most heavy at-home charging will occur over limited periods (1700 onwards) and taper rapidly towards midnight leaving the other 18 hours or so for grid storage recovery. In answer to other concerns about charging at the roadside I believe that will need to be wireless in many locations.

That is grid level storage. I suspect initially most grid scale storage systems will be large and co-located with renewable energy generating systems.

However, as the price of these come down, I suspect that the local energy companies would look to see if a battery would be cheaper than an upgrade to cables/transformers in a smaller scale. It will be a purely economic choice.

Tesla is already doing something similar for some of it's chargers. Where the local grid can't quite support all the chargers they co-locate some batteries. During quieter periods the batteries charge from the grid and this means they don't hit high usage charges when every one is using the chargers.

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[tonyidle]

That is grid level storage. I suspect initially most grid scale storage systems will be large and co-located with renewable energy generating systems.

However, as the price of these come down, I suspect that the local energy companies would look to see if a battery would be cheaper than an upgrade to cables/transformers in a smaller scale. It will be a purely economic choice.

Tesla is already doing something similar for some of it's chargers. Where the local grid can't quite support all the chargers they co-locate some batteries. During quieter periods the batteries charge from the grid and this means they don't hit high usage charges when every one is using the chargers.

It's what I would assume would be in the mix - there will be a lot of quite local solutions I expect.

 

[SpeedyDux]

Gromett Have you heard of any planning for street-level (not necessarily on street) charging? By which I mean infrastructure for groups of dwellings. It occurs to me that very local grid storage at the substation could be used rather than re-cabling. Most heavy at-home charging will occur over limited periods (1700 onwards) and taper rapidly towards midnight leaving the other 18 hours or so for grid storage recovery. In answer to other concerns about charging at the roadside I believe that will need to be wireless in many locations.

Compared with direct cable, how efficient is wireless charging and is there power loss in transmission? What is the fastest charging rate using wireless means?

 

[Gromett]

Compared with direct cable, how efficient is wireless charging and is there power loss in transmission? What is the fastest charging rate using wireless means?

Wireless charging can scale up quite high. I personally don't like the idea due to the inefficiency. But for major cities the overlapping type for junctions and taxi ranks may make sense.

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[Jaws]

I believe that will need to be wireless in many locations.

Nikola Tesla, where are when we need you ? !

 

[Vipar]

I am going to buy two batteries put one in the rear of the van and have it wired so when the first ones empty I will switch to the second one. Thereby doubling my available mileage. Simplistic solution

 

[Terry]

I have not read all the posts on this only first page As I see things at the moment where is all the stuff coming from to make batteries ?

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[Madcaravanner]

Just hoping I'm still here in 10 years.

Ditto

 

[Gromett]

I have not read all the posts on this only first page As I see things at the moment where is all the stuff coming from to make batteries ?

The only one causing issues currently is the Nickel. Lots of mines coming online to supply the new demand for it though so won't last.

Tesla is stipulating that the supply contracts have to be for clean/green mines. A lot of mines are moving to electric now due to it actually being cheaper to run and maintain not just for climate brownie points.

 

[domf]

Interesting idea about plugging into Street lights. Ours are not connected to the mains - solar only. They only light a quarter of the LEDs sometimes, presumably when the batteries haven't been able to charge enough. Not sure how they would cope with an EV

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[SpeedyDux]

From elsewhere: today wind turbines are generating a mere 2% of UK electricity demand.

Wot I said earlier re: UK sitting under high pressure (anticyclone) in cold weather. Freezing fog means no wind. Where's all that nuclear energy we will need after 2030?

 

[Gromett]

From elsewhere: today wind turbines are generating a mere 2% of UK electricity demand.

Wot I said earlier re: UK sitting under high pressure (anticyclone) in cold weather. Freezing fog means no wind. Where's all that nuclear energy we will need after 2030?

We still have natural gas generating capacity. We just don't use it. This is good believe it or not as we import the majority of our gas that we use from Norway etc.

So if the wind is blowing we get cheap electricity without having to export money to import fuel. If when the wind isn't blowing we just burn a bit of natural gas. This is sufficient to keep us going until we get grid scale storage up and running.

When our total annual wind generation capacity exceeds our total annual consumption we only need to install storage sufficient to get us over the longest period of time without wind. However, offshore wind generally has fewer periods of no wind than on shore.

 

[SpeedyDux]

We still have natural gas generating capacity. We just don't use it. This is good believe it or not as we import the majority of our gas that we use from Norway etc.

So if the wind is blowing we get cheap electricity without having to export money to import fuel. If when the wind isn't blowing we just burn a bit of natural gas. This is sufficient to keep us going until we get grid scale storage up and running.

When our total annual wind generation capacity exceeds our total annual consumption we only need to install storage sufficient to get us over the longest period of time without wind. However, offshore wind generally has fewer periods of no wind than on shore.

Norwegian ... reminds me of a Monty Python sketch about a blue parrot. Wait ... is the gas green?

Maybe we can use that in our CH boilers after all!

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[Rapido925M]

There was an interesting article on "Click!" a year or so ago where they showed a storage system using heavy railway trucks which were electrically propelled up an incline by "spare" energy. When supplies fell, the trucks rolled back down, returning a lot of their potential energy as electricity (I don't recall the overall efficiency BUT no need for expensive batteries and much of the land can be used for grazing etc (so long as the trucks move slowly )

Gordon

 

[Gromett]

There was an interesting article on "Click!" a year or so ago where they showed a storage system using heavy railway trucks which were electrically propelled up an incline by "spare" energy. When supplies fell, the trucks rolled back down, returning a lot of their potential energy as electricity (I don't recall the overall efficiency BUT no need for expensive batteries and much of the land can be used for grazing etc (so long as the trucks move slowly )

Gordon

Yes, there are lots of kinetic storage systems. Another one which seems more promising uses large concrete blocks hoisted up a steel tower... I just googled this video of it.


There is another one which uses steel bubbles that are pulled down to the bottom of the ocean then released to recover the energy.

Then there is the underwater compressed air system





I don't think kinetic storage systems are the answer except in some very limited cases. They are not very efficient on the round trip.

My opinion is that static land based storage systems with few moving parts will be the answer. Compressed air, Batteries and Hydrogen storage seems to be the best options currently. However, there is so much research and development going into this area that we just can't know which will win out. I suspect that many different types of storage will be used depending on location, finances and infrastructure.

Exciting times.

 

[Gromett]

From elsewhere: today wind turbines are generating a mere 2% of UK electricity demand.

Wot I said earlier re: UK sitting under high pressure (anticyclone) in cold weather. Freezing fog means no wind. Where's all that nuclear energy we will need after 2030?

I have been mulling over the best way to explain this as you are not the only one who has brought this up.

What we have to do is look at 3 facts.
1) What is the total annual demand for electric in the UK measured in TWh. (Terra watt hours).
2) What is the total annual production capacity of electric in the UK (offshore wind).
3) What is the longest historical period of time without any wind at all.

To make the system work, All we need to do is 2 steps.
1) Build enough capacity so that 2 is greater than 1.
2) We have enough storage capacity to cover 3.

We have until 2050 to achieve both steps. That is 30 years. Plenty long enough.

Progress will accelerate now that the tech has been proven and investors are starting to see the potential.

World's largest offshore wind farm secures $8bn investment

Dogger Bank, which will be the world's largest offshore wind farm, secures an $8 billion investment from oil giant Equinor and energy company SSE.

electrek.co

Quite a few people are mixing up the ban on new ICE vehicles with wind power, they are not related.

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[SpeedyDux]

I have been mulling over the best way to explain this as you are not the only one who has brought this up.

What we have to do is look at 3 facts.
1) What is the total annual demand for electric in the UK measured in TWh. (Terra watt hours).
2) What is the total annual production capacity of electric in the UK (offshore wind).
3) What is the longest historical period of time without any wind at all.

To make the system work, All we need to do is 2 steps.
1) Build enough capacity so that 2 is greater than 1.
2) We have enough storage capacity to cover 3.

We have until 2050 to achieve both steps. That is 30 years. Plenty long enough.

Progress will accelerate now that the tech has been proven and investors are starting to see the potential.

World's largest offshore wind farm secures $8bn investment

Dogger Bank, which will be the world's largest offshore wind farm, secures an $8 billion investment from oil giant Equinor and energy company SSE.

electrek.co

Quite a few people are mixing up the ban on new ICE vehicles with wind power, they are not related.

The combined effect of these Green policies is both concerning and related.

1) The total annual demand for electric energy in the UK will double when there is a mass shift to EVs and 29 million homes have to install low carbon heating* as gas boilers are phased out. (Yes, I know that only newbuilds are banned from connection to mains gas in 2023 but this is obviously the thin end of the policy wedge. It seems highly likely that sales of new fossil fuel boilers will eventually be banned.)

2) Off shore wind is not going to provide anough capacity so we still need a lot more onshore renewable or low carbon electricity generation especially when current nuclear reaches end of life and coal and gas is phased out.

3) Unless we have excess generating capacity it doesn't matter how much storage capacity there is.

4} The private energy companies are asking Ofgem to approve proposals to cut off electricity customers without compensation in certain circumstances. This will become load shedding for convenience e.g. when spot energy prices are deemed too high. They will cut off EV chargers when it suits them.

5) There is a huge cost involved in new or replacement distribution infrastructure to enable street level charging and domestic electricity consumption to double without causing blackouts. Nobody is addressing this. If or more likely when the cost is passed on to consumers expect much higher electricity tariffs. Already 3 or 4 times the gas tariff converted into equivalent KWh.

*£26,300 to install low-carbon heating in an existing house according to the Report from the Committee on Climate change - wow that makes small EV cars look cheap!

 

[Coolcats]

Tesla has competition now and there are a range of ‘cheap’ alternatives available

Cheapest Electric Cars On Sale in the UK in 2020 - GreenCarGuide.co.uk

The cheapest Battery Electric Cars on sale in the UK in 2020, eligibility for the plug-in car grant, electric driving range and links to independent reviews

www.greencarguide.co.uk

 

[Gromett]

The combined effect of these Green policies is both concerning and related.

1) The total annual demand for electric energy in the UK will double when there is a mass shift to EVs and 29 million homes have to install low carbon heating* as gas boilers are phased out. (Yes, I know that only newbuilds are banned from connection to mains gas in 2023 but this is obviously the thin end of the policy wedge. It seems highly likely that sales of new fossil fuel boilers will eventually be banned.)

We have 30 years to double electric generation capacity. A lot of people are are thinking that electric heating will cause a HUGE spike in demand for electric and do the maths by replacing KWh for KWh equivelent of gas -> electric. The reality is likely to a big increase but not as much as some are predicting as most new heating will be heat pump which has a 1 to 4 relationship. You put in 1KWh of electric to get 4KWh of heat.

2) Off shore wind is not going to provide anough capacity so we still need a lot more onshore renewable or low carbon electricity generation especially when current nuclear reaches end of life and coal and gas is phased out.

Offshore wind on it's own is not likely to replace everything. BUT it is likely to replace the bulk of current generation on a day to day basis. I have already said that the gas plants will be kept online, and likely to use hydrogen. New nuclear is in the plan and will come online before 2050. Finally the government has done the sensible thing and is investing in SMR and Rolls Royce has lots of experience in this area due to building smaller versions for submarines. 30 years is plenty of time to get this up and running.

3) Unless we have excess generating capacity it doesn't matter how much storage capacity there is.

We already have excess generating capacity available to us. As noted by the National Grid when commenting on the EU's threat to cut off the interconnects which supply us with 9% of our annual demand currently. They said, If the the EU cuts off our interconnects we have enough generating capacity even if the wind stops blowing to cover us for peak usage. As wind power gives us 15% and interconnects 9% that means we currently have at least 24% excess generating capacity. Boris has said we aim to have an addition 30GW of wind power in the next 10 years. I think he won't reach that mark, but it will be close. Remember this is 2030 not 2050 target.

4} The private energy companies are asking Ofgem to approve proposals to cut off electricity customers without compensation in certain circumstances. This will become load shedding for convenience e.g. when spot energy prices are deemed too high. They will cut off EV chargers when it suits them.

The legislation is not as bad as you are saying and in fact is misleading. It is not going to be used for convenience or for pricing reasons. They will not be able to cut off EV chargers when it suits them. It is an emergency measure for when the grid is at risk. You know like last year when a chunk of the country had to be disconnected completely due to 3 power plants going offline. Rather than cutting off chunks of the grid to protect the entire grid they would be able to manage demand and prevent complete loss. Also worth noting it requires the customer permission and hasn't even gotten to parliament yet.

Here are the relevant bits highlighted.

As previously stated, the technical solution proposed to allow Distributors control of consumer devices (such as Electric Vehicles) connected to Smart Meter infrastructure will only be used as a last resort measure in the event that market mechanisms fail or do not deliver to the extent anticipated. Under these circumstances and at this stage, the Distributor would contact the relevant customers, explaining the situation and outlining the solutions they propose to use in the short-term and provide details of any longer-term solutions being considered. The aim will be to obtain the customers consent and then inform the Supplier of this agreement and that the Distributor will be using the load management feature until a more desirable solution is achieved. The Distributor would then report back to the Suppliers, Ofgem and customers on the systems use on an agreed basis. As noted above,customers participation in these arrangements is voluntary.It has been recognised that there needs to be clear and transparent governance arrangements in place establishing when such a solution could be used and ensuring effective communications between Distributors, Suppliers, consumers,and the Authority.

https://www.dcusa.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/DCP-371_Last-resort-arrangements-for-Distributors-to-manage-specific-consumer-connected-devices.pdf

Parliament is likely to ensure that any such scheme would be for emergencies only and with full consent of the customer. You don't have to take part if you don't want to.

5) There is a huge cost involved in new or replacement distribution infrastructure to enable street level charging and domestic electricity consumption to double without causing blackouts. Nobody is addressing this. If or more likely when the cost is passed on to consumers expect much higher electricity tariffs. Already 3 or 4 times the gas tariff converted into equivalent KWh.

*£26,300 to install low-carbon heating in an existing house according to the Report from the Committee on Climate change - wow that makes small EV cars look cheap!

You say no one is addressing this? Government is investing in the charging infrastructure. Private companies are rolling out chargers even without subsidies already. I actually expect KWh prices for electricity to fall as more wind comes on line for 3 main reason.
1) We will have an excess of generating capacity.
2) We will have load shifting capabilities.
3) We will have demand based pricing.

All of these will give the opportunity for lower prices.

What is also likely to see a come back is night storage heaters (but massively improved). As we get this extra 30GW of wind power we are likely to see so much night time electric being generated that the electric companies are going to want to sell this no matter how low the price rather than switching generating capacity off. I suspect we will see offers in the future of less than the current low of 5p/KWh...

The new API for accessing generation infrastructure is already being put to good use with the 2 new large (ish) batteries being installed. Expect a lot more of this as companies install isolated battery systems that will buy off peak and sell back at on peak and make a profit on the difference. This load shifting capability and the new pretty open API means it is relatively cheap and relatively easy for small scale energy providers to connect and supply useful services to the Grid.

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