2030 no new diesel vans. What's your plan? (1 Viewer)

[tribalbrit]

Yeah but you'd need 3 to get anywhere.

 

[autorouter]

Lithium and cobalt are rare earth minerals

Sure, lithium and cobalt are quite rare, and they are found in the earth. But they are not technically 'rare earth metals', like neodymium and samarium used for rare earth magnets. Lithium is an alkali metal, and cobalt is a transition metal.

 

[gus-lopez]

We are told (which may not be true) that 84% of properties have off road parking

That's because when they ask each household every says ' yes we have offroad parking' but failing to realise they have one space at the house & 5 occupants them have answered yes.

as has been suggested, the road usage tax will be set at 75p per mile (or even £1.50 per mile) for cars, that will force everyone on a low income onto public transport, as private motoring becomes unaffordable for them.

Or they won't work. Then if there are no benefits it will soon become a civil war.

If we go ahead as the government plans and installs an additional 30GW of wind generation we will have a massive excess of generation.

But most of it will soon be in other countries? one of which hates the sight of us & soon will have voted to exit the union. Then they'll be making up the lost oil revenue with inflated elcetricity prices.

The vast majority of vans are used for local area deliveries and local tradesmen.

Where is the information to support this? You keep saying it but anyone who I know of running small businesses do far greater mileage than 100/day

You are misrepresenting the law. You should check out what it actually allows for, and note that it requires the permission of the householder.

At present. They are proposing the introduction of it ,although as usual the meters will all need changing again & Ofgem state that they will 'rigorously oppose it'?
.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...electricity-without-warning-compensation.html

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[Wildbill]

For £120,000 it ought to be.

it's not new but still expensive at 51k or their abut
bill

 

[LesW]

You do know you can buy a Tesla for less than £40,000?

Ooh goody.. I'll have two please..

 

[Sid52]

Bad news sells papers, even the FT. Very few if any of them reported that it was a lower than required by regulations buffer. There was never a shortage of capacity. Secondly very few published an update a few hours later when the system worked as designed and the buffer was restored to it required minimum level.

This is the first time it has happened since 2015, prior to that it happened quite frequently every winter. The reverse of what most people suspect is true, the grid has actually got more stable over time. Remember years ago we used to be worried about gas shortages during winter which was causing problems for the national grid planning.
Here is just one example from 2010. there are many more examples.

The Big Freeze 2010: An audit

The chilling season goes on. Susie Mesure, Andrew Johnson and Emily Dugan report

www.independent.co.uk

Here is the thing though. If we go ahead as the government plans and installs an additional 30GW of wind generation we will have a massive excess of generation. Storage can be built to take this excess and supply it back when there is a lull in the wind. The storage could be fast acting batteries, Medium speed but bulk storage using compressed air which is scaleable and hydrogen to supply the current gas turbine generators which are slower to come online but can do large amounts.

I have experience of this type of system from my electrical apprenticeship and my work in data centres. The batteries would provide the fast response for short term supply while the air compressor systems come up to speed. The compressed air systems could last for hours if not days. The gas system could be there for extreme events where we are under supplied for weeks.

This is not going to happen overnight and this does not need to be complete by 2030 as the deadline is actually 2050 for us to be carbon neutral. We have plenty of time.

Finally, the wind tends not to stop blowing UK wide. We are currently more reliant on the unpredictable onshore wind farms. Offshore has a far high uptime and it is extremely rare for the wind to stop blowing in all the seas surrounding the UK.

Remember the big advantage of wind is that once you have paid for the infrastructure you don't then need to continue to pay for fuel and worry about geopolitically caused supply issues.

30gw capacity isn't what they generate. Typical percentages that I have seen are 15-30% of installed capacity. Wind speeds less than 30mph will only generate a tiny amount of electricity. The point is we will need a permanent generation capacity using gas for when the wind doesn't blow enough. Storage is obviously desirable, but probably would not be enough when we get a static high pressure region for more than a week, which happens several times each winter.

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[Sid52]

You do know you can buy a Tesla for less than £40,000?

Only the basic 2 wheel drive with no extras. More likely £70k like the one my brother in law has. Warp speed acceleration!

 

[Dorset Diver]

Plan A is to make it to 2030, and Plan A+ is to be still able to MH.

 

[Daz n Tina]

Can’t wait to turn up on a job and say to the customer just got to plug my van in. They sometimes look in shock when I plug my drill battery in.

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[Gromett]

Where is the information to support this? You keep saying it but anyone who I know of running small businesses do far greater mileage than 100/day

Multiple sources. Average van mileage per year is 12,000 -13,000 depending on the source.

13,000 miles per year divided by 50 weeks = 260 miles per week.
Over 6 days =43 miles
Over 5 days = 52 miles.

That means more than 50% of of van users do less than 100 mile per day by a margin.

 

[Ian Bosman]

‘Plan for the worst, hope for the best’.......I hope the value of diesel vans will go up.....but there could be a lot less fuelling points to use by then.....!?!

Well, at the grand age of 78, 79 come Sunday(!) ie expect that by the time 2030 comes round I have either gone to another place or just too ancient to manage a motorhome. But then, I am an optimist so I might drive on into the 90's. And there will still be lots of diesels about even so as a ten year old MH is still in its youth. Mine has just past 45K miles at 11 years of age.

 

[Gromett]

30gw capacity isn't what they generate. Typical percentages that I have seen are 15-30% of installed capacity. Wind speeds less than 30mph will only generate a tiny amount of electricity. The point is we will need a permanent generation capacity using gas for when the wind doesn't blow enough. Storage is obviously desirable, but probably would not be enough when we get a static high pressure region for more than a week, which happens several times each winter.

The capacity factor you are quoting is the number google presents when you search for it. It is however a global figure and includes tiny single turbines etc.

The UK figure is usually quoted as being 25-30% higher than this. Our average is around the 36% figure because we have a much windier country.

However, if you look at just the most modern offshore ones the figure averages out to just under 40%.

The latest ones that are located off the east coast of England are quoted as high as 60% but that cannot be confirmed yet until a few more years of production. The new huge turbines located out at sea are impressive beasts.

The capacity figure is the average output over the entire year. It doesn't mean they only operate for say 40% of the year leaving 60% without energy.

The offshore east coast ones rarely produce nothing.

So let's say you want to go 100% wind power. You need to look at total consumption over the entire year which is around 330TWh. You then need to divide this by the number of hours in a year. This will give you the GW of production needed, you then divide this by the capacity factor and that is how many wind turbines you need to build allowing for capacity factors. This means that when they are all producing at close to full rate we have a massive surplus which we then need to store for when the production rate falls below demand.

Boris is talking about an additional 30GW of production which will almost double our capacity.

Remember we are right at the start of this thing.

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[Gromett]

Sid52 Check this out.

UK offshore wind capacity factors – Energy Numbers

energynumbers.info

You have to exclude the really old ones and the demo ones and pretty much every single one is over 30% and almost half are at or over 40% with a few getting into the high 40s and one touching 50%+

 

[Sid52]

Multiple sources. Average van mileage per year is 12,000 -13,000 depending on the source.

13,000 miles per year divided by 50 weeks = 260 miles per week.
Over 6 days =43 miles
Over 5 days = 52 miles.

That means more than 50% of of van users do less than 100 mile per day by a margin.

Van use falls roughly into two categories. Work vans drive to a job and sit there all day, they're used for carrying tools and materials. Depending on location, mileage could well be less than 50 miles. I used to do about 5000 miles a year when I was landscaping. Even if driving to jobs further away, it would not usually be more than 70 miles. A battery van, apart from the price, would have suited me fine.
Service vans and delivery vans do much further mileage, could be up to 4-500 miles a day doing long distance drops. The Merc Sprinter and the like are motorway bashers running all over the country doing 500 miles a day, so currently batteries aren't any good.

 

[Jaws]

ost (all ??) dense residential streets in towns have street lamps.

Which in Breckland district ( which is bloody massive ) street lights are not exactly thick on the ground, even on the housing estates they put the minimum to stay legal.. The ones we do have are fed with quite thin cables considering, and only 1 in 10 are left on after midnight
As they will not be free to use all the charging points will need a secure card reader.. it is going to cost billions and if councils started a program NOW they might get finished around 2050

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[busbuddy]

And what would happen if we get to 2030 and nobody can afford, or want to buy, a new vehicle

 

[Jim]

And what would happen if we get to 2030 and nobody can afford, or want to buy, a new vehicle

Same as now, if you can't afford it you don't buy it.

 

[Brains]

Which in Breckland district ( which is bloody massive ) street lights are not exactly thick on the ground, even on the housing estates they put the minimum to stay legal.. The ones we do have are fed with quite thin cables considering, and only 1 in 10 are left on after midnight
As they will not be free to use all the charging points will need a secure card reader.. it is going to cost billions and if councils started a program NOW they might get finished around 2050

Money talks

When street lighting posts are seen by local councils as profit centers (as has already happened in London), you'd be amazed just how fast they can plant more !

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[Sid52]

Sid52 Check this out.

UK offshore wind capacity factors – Energy Numbers

energynumbers.info

You have to exclude the really old ones and the demo ones and pretty much every single one is over 30% and almost half are at or over 40% with a few getting into the high 40s and one touching 50%+

That's some very interesting and encouraging numbers. So is the increased capacity due to better positioning as regards wind direction, shadowing and velocity, taller tower, better performance in marginal wind speeds etc?
You may have seen this, mapping of North Sea wind farms

North Sea Wind Farms

mangomap.com

 

[Rapido925M]

Please stop worrying. With the help of a PhD friend I have built a 2m x 2m x 3m box which can carry 50Tonnes but only over a limited range. He is out there now with his sonic screwdriver and reckons we should be able to extend it to 10 000 years.

OMG: there was a strange noise and the box has vanished.

Just getting a message over the sub-ether communicator. Apparently he has been captured by Daleks but he managed to hide some spare dialithium crystals at a campsite in Lincolnshire. He hopes it can be identified because a woman saw him and said "it's life Jim, but not as we know it". Please scour the East Coast and find this vital power source.

Oh oh: another message. A mini black hole has been discovered in our Sun and it will swallow up our Solar System at the start of 2030. My Doctor friend asks everyone not to buy new vehicles but to send all their spare cash to me in the hope that I can replicate his device. Further details to follow.

Gordon

 

[Jaws]

Multiple sources. Average van mileage per year is 12,000 -13,000 depending on the source.

13,000 miles per year divided by 50 weeks = 260 miles per week.
Over 6 days =43 miles
Over 5 days = 52 miles.

That means more than 50% of of van users do less than 100 mile per day by a margin.

Back to these 'average' figures again
What happens to all who do more, a lot more, than the average figure ?

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[vin0114]

We'll both be in our late 80's by then hopefully so health and fortune will dictate our future

 

[Gromett]

Van use falls roughly into two categories. Work vans drive to a job and sit there all day, they're used for carrying tools and materials. Depending on location, mileage could well be less than 50 miles. I used to do about 5000 miles a year when I was landscaping. Even if driving to jobs further away, it would not usually be more than 70 miles. A battery van, apart from the price, would have suited me fine.
Service vans and delivery vans do much further mileage, could be up to 4-500 miles a day doing long distance drops. The Merc Sprinter and the like are motorway bashers running all over the country doing 500 miles a day, so currently batteries aren't any good.

Which was exactly my point when I said this....

I have covered this before. The vast majority of vans are used for local area deliveries and local tradesmen. The manufactures are currently supply side limited on batteries. They can only get so much at the moment.
So if you have for example 1,000Kwh of battery supply do you build 20 x 50Kwh vans with 100 mile range or 10 x 100Kwh vans with 200 mile range. The profit margin is the same on both and there are enough customers to soak up all the supply you can provide...

Think about it. For each of those merc sprinters doing 500 miles a day there has to be 10 van's doing 50 miles a day to keep the average. The average is a fixed point that we know (within a small range of error). so for every van doing double the average we have to have 2 doing below the average and so on.

So those 1,000Kwh batteries are going to be targetted at making the most vans possible to maximise profit.

 

[Gromett]

Back to these 'average' figures again
What happens to all who do more, a lot more, than the average figure ?

I was explaining why ALL the vans being built at the moment have low range. I also said this.

Once the new battery factories come online and supply constraints are removed expect to see longer range vans.

The van makers are doing the sensible thing at the moment, using current vans and converting to keep development costs down, and building lower range vans that cover most of the market to maximise the number of vans they can build for the current supply of batteries.


I will say this again, for every van that does double the average you have to have 2 that do half the average. Selling to two shorter range customers is more profitable than selling to one longer range client.

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[Gromett]

But most of it will soon be in other countries? one of which hates the sight of us & soon will have voted to exit the union. Then they'll be making up the lost oil revenue with inflated elcetricity prices.

You make 2 statements of fact there that are wrong.
1) Most of which will be soon in other countries... I am guessing that you mean Scotland
2) They will make up for lost oil revenue by inflated electricity prices.

Here are a few facts to counter your claims.

Most offshore wind farms are not being built in scotland.

Yup that looks like most are being built in Scotland.

And as for them pushing the price up as punishment if they left. Have you heard of market economics?

 

[Gromett]

That's some very interesting and encouraging numbers. So is the increased capacity due to better positioning as regards wind direction, shadowing and velocity, taller tower, better performance in marginal wind speeds etc?

Lots of reasons for the improvement over global average. One is prime location. We have one of the biggest wind resources in the world due to us being an offshore island.

New turbines are taller with a bigger sweep radius.

Being offshore is a major advantage for consistent wind and higher average speeds.

Offshore is the answer to the bulk of our electric needs. I wasn't an early convert to wind having seen too many onshore wind turbines near me seeming to be stood still all the time.

Offshore has changed my opinion in a big way and I am now a convert, especially now we can do grid scale storage. The combination of offshore and storage is the winner in my view.

You may have seen this, mapping of North Sea wind farms

North Sea Wind Farms

mangomap.com

Don't let gus-lopez see this. He appears to be convinced scotland has it all and will take their ball home when/if they leave Sorry Gus I couldn't resist

 

[SpeedyDux]

Or they won't work. Then if there are no benefits it will soon become a civil war.

At present. They are proposing the introduction of it ,although as usual the meters will all need changing again & Ofgem state that they will 'rigorously oppose it'?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...electricity-without-warning-compensation.html

To prevent mass civil unrest (or civil war), the Great Reset includes a universal basic income. That's the carrot. Beware of the stick - likely to be a Social Credit System similar to the Chinese one.

Some of us have been saying for a long time that the eventual purpose of smart meters (3rd Generation) will be to allow the monopolistic big energy providers to cut off our supply remotely without paying compensation. Ofgem is revealing how that is linked to demand from EV charging*:

'Electricity networks in Great Britain were not designed to accommodate the significant additional demand that certain consumer devices, such as electric vehicle chargers, presents.

'In some circumstances, [energy] distributors will be required to act to find a balance between their obligation to operate cost-effective, safe and reliable electricity networks and the need to support customers who wish to adopt low carbon technologies such as EVs.

'The distributors recognise the important role that flexibility services providers and market solutions will play in delivering efficient future networks.

'In the event that market mechanisms fail or do not deliver to the extent anticipated the distributors will still need to protect physical assets from overload caused, for example, by the take up of low carbon technologies by domestic customers.'

(*Ofgem quotation from the article linked by gus-lopez, plus my emphasis)

There is no guarantee that the privately-owned supply and distribution networks will receive the upgrades necessary to support large scale EV charging as well as the switch to electric-only domestic central heating. You only have to look at the BT Openreach monopoly foot-dragging on its obligation to provide high speed broadband everywhere as a preview of how the electricity supply oligopoly will also drag its collective feet.

All of this shift to low carbon tech will require massive private investment over comparatively short timescales, that the markets will be reluctant to finance. Hence the reference to balance as a get-out of obligations to provide reliable elecricity supplies to all consumers 24/7.

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[SpeedyDux]

No;1 in most towns won't work. Where my nephew lives, which didn't even exist 50 years ago , the council allowed to be built a town where most of the roads are 5m in width You cannot park in the road unless staggered, The average per house is 4 vehicles. Being a 'green' area with huge amounts of trees, bushes & rabbit run alleyways,+ huge amounts of houses have no parking whatsoever within 2 or 300 metres.
Alternate them where? everywhere is like it in most towns now?
Mate delivered a 130k car up north recently where the bloke said he had lived there 4 years & at no time had he ever been able to park closer than 4 streets away??
I inadvertantly went down a dead end in devon last year. solid parking both sides ,nose to tail each side half on pavement, no off street parking of any sort & even the 'turning'area at the end parked solid. Nowhere for me to turn whatsoever. Had to reverse out 500m.
You appear, like me, to have been too long away from places that used to be passable & are now absolutely bumper to bumper in every street.
2) ok in areas where people have access to other means of transport & where parking is strictly controlled.
I.e if you aren't wealthy you can't even afford to live there to start with. If you are wealthy you would be leaving the car in the multi storey private garage regardless of the cost & plugged in permanently.

3) You wouldn't have to worry about them being blocked it is the street that would be blocked.
These days when the bin men are collecting you are doomed to be stuck behind them until the end of the road or a turning you can go down to go another way. There is usually nowhere for them to pull in & collect.


In reality they shouldn't be using a vehicle for anything under about 8 miles.This is what is causing many of the problems, along with too many people, people who think it is a means of getting from Ato B , school runs ,etc;etc,

On-street parking can be very problematic. The posh Bristol BS8 postcode known as Clifton is a notorious example. Many residents have no choice except to park 2 or 3 streets away from where they live in very expensive Regency terraces. It is car crime central. An acquaintance came back to his BMW M3 one morning to find it had been stripped of front body panels. Brazenly carried out in full public view. No chance of charging EVs on the street unless pavements are ripped up and more substations and much fatter cabling installed in what is a highly protected Conservation Area jealously defended by the Clifton and Hotwells Preservation Society. Next, how would you protect your EV charging cable from copper thieves unless you stand guard for hours? I doubt if anyone keeps a MH on the street in BS3, even the Van Life community, because there aren't enough Residents Parking Permits to meet demand and they are costly.

 

[buttons]

On-street parking can be very problematic. The posh Bristol BS8 postcode known as Clifton is a notorious example. Many residents have no choice except to park 2 or 3 streets away from where they live in very expensive Regency terraces. It is car crime central. An acquaintance came back to his BMW M3 one morning to find it had been stripped of front body panels. Brazenly carried out in full public view. No chance of charging EVs on the street unless pavements are ripped up and more substations and much fatter cabling installed in what is a highly protected Conservation Area jealously defended by the Clifton and Hotwells Preservation Society. Next, how would you protect your EV charging cable from copper thieves unless you stand guard for hours? I doubt if anyone keeps a MH on the street in BS3, even the Van Life community, because there aren't enough Residents Parking Permits to meet demand and they are costly.

I've not read through this entire thread but has the home charging of EVs been mentioned. It is going to be a nightmare. Not a single new dwelling has yet been built with charging EVs in mind. Home charging is the only realistic way forward for EVs.

 

[buttons]

On-street parking can be very problematic. The posh Bristol BS8 postcode known as Clifton is a notorious example. Many residents have no choice except to park 2 or 3 streets away from where they live in very expensive Regency terraces. It is car crime central. An acquaintance came back to his BMW M3 one morning to find it had been stripped of front body panels. Brazenly carried out in full public view. No chance of charging EVs on the street unless pavements are ripped up and more substations and much fatter cabling installed in what is a highly protected Conservation Area jealously defended by the Clifton and Hotwells Preservation Society. Next, how would you protect your EV charging cable from copper thieves unless you stand guard for hours? I doubt if anyone keeps a MH on the street in BS3, even the Van Life community, because there aren't enough Residents Parking Permits to meet demand and they are costly.

I've not read through this entire thread but has the home charging of EVs been mentioned. It is going to be a nightmare. Not a single new dwelling has yet been built with charging EVs in mind. Home charging is the only realistic way forward for EVs.

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