Zika Virus (1 Viewer)

[mjltigger]

You said. .
"I canyou are right. But after another 5 minutes I can find another set of facts which tell a different and equally implausible story. Some biology and some genetics mixed with a touch of common sense tell me something is wrongwith the official version of events"

That's classic
Passing off a google search from somewhere as fact. Throw in a few technical words and question the official version... which you never quote.

So.. Where is my conspiracy theory? What theory am I classically passing off as fact? The one I called implausible perhaps?

 

[sdc77]

Again.. your conspiracy theory is that the authorities (WHO) or government health departments are hiding something about this virus because you found some more facts that you are not divulging to us

 

[Hollyberry]

No.. guillan barre is a syndrome which I believe means it's cause is unknown. It seems to have been triggered by the virus in south America though.
In my case it was triggered during flu like symptoms. (Some years ago)

Horrible illness. Relative of mine had it years ago, no dea where it came from. She first began to feel ill on a flight back from Spain. Recovered after about 3 years.
When she was ill a woman I worked with described a very similar illness in her husband which had happened about 30 years earlier. They visited a zoo, it was rather run down and the smell in the monkey house was so bad they rushed through it and out. Within 2 hours he began to feel ill and by the time they got home couldn't walk. It was diagnosed as Guillan Barre but the cause was unknown and doctors didn't know anything about a link from monkeys. It's a very under funded illness, but fortunately quite rare.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[mjltigger]

Again.. your conspiracy theory is that the authorities (WHO) or government health departments are hiding something about this virus because you found some more facts that you are not divulging to us

Where did I say that?

 

[sdc77]

Where did I say that?

In your post

Sorry .. am I wrong here. Do you agree with gromets post then?

 

[mjltigger]

In your post

Sorry .. am I wrong here. Do you agree with gromets post then?

No I didn't, yes you are, no I don't.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[sdc77]

Unfortunately you did. But don't worry .. a bit of biology, genetics and common sense along with a google search should sort it out.

 

[mjltigger]

Unfortunately you did. But don't worry .. a bit of biology, genetics and common sense along with a google search should sort it out.

Or you could just quote my post where I said it?

 

[DBK]

I do think the virus will mutate and spread from human to human (if it hasn't already done so). I also think there will be a vaccine available at some stage.

I suspect not, zika virus is apparently closely related to dengue fever, which has been around and known about for a long time but dengue is not known to be transmitted between humans and they haven't yet developed a satisfactory vaccine against it either.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[sdc77]

@mjltigger I have quoted it. Your post has been quoted more than once.
I think I know where you stand though. So thanks.

 

[Gooney]

No.. guillan barre is a syndrome which I believe means it's cause is unknown. It seems to have been triggered by the virus in south America though.
In my case it was triggered during flu like symptoms. (Some years ago)

I caught this many years ago in similar circumstances, I had a bout of flu (not man flu, the real McCoy), during this illness I lost the use of my legs and after hospital tests GBS was diagnosed, unfortunately I developed a Chronic version of this Called CIDIPS (Chronic Inflamatory Demyelination Immunity Polyneuropathy Syndrome) a long name I know but here I am 24 years later with no feelings in my legs from my knees down and controlling it with the daily use of steroids.

 

[sdc77]

@Gooney that's awful. I feel really lucky. I lost the feeling and use of my limbs but it all returned eventually.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[Gromett]

Your using bad science to argue the case for bad science. There is a rise in the incidence of a virus thought to be generally harmless and at the same time a rise in cases of a birth defect. Read your own last sentence again.

No, not a conspiracy theorist just someone who is seeing bad science being reported as fact by sensationalist media.

Where is my bad science?

Your conspiracy theory from your picture linked the release of genetically modified mosquitoes to the outbreak of Zika. This is patently not the case. I have not used any bad science anywhere in my post. I have stated facts from reputable sources. Your conspiracy theory started on the Conspiracy thread on Reddit and has done the social media rounds and ended up with pictures like yours. The people who started it have no scientific background and have not even looked at the facts.

Here are some links for you to read... Only from reputable newspapers. I have skipped the scientific papers on the subject because I am guessing they would be too hard going for you.

How the link to microcephaly was discovered.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bra...ded-alarm-on-zika-and-microcephaly-1454109620

How they discovered that microcephaly was not a new side effect in Brazil, ie it was in French Polynesia as well. The final paragraph also blows out the water the profit motive for a company to be involved with the spread of the virus.
Broken Link Removed

If Zika virus has been in Africa and Asia for decades, why wasn’t a link to microcephaly detected earlier?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/health/what-is-zika-virus.html#id-56a0f2117d0bed0001000000

The disease is spreading faster in Brazil and other South American countries because they are more densely populated, they are a wetter continent than Africa so Mosquitoes are a bigger problem, They are Richer than Africa so tend to travel more causing the spread to be faster. These are all facts that explain the rapid spread in South America.

If you want to look at the original source for this conspiracy see this; It should get your conspiracy theory juices flowing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/42mhii/genetically_modified_mosquitoes_released_in/
All of the "questions" can be easily answered or refuted.

FACT: Zika has been found in French Polynesia.
FACT: The same birth defects have been found in French Polynesia
FACT: No genetically modified mosquitoes were released in French Polynesia
FACT: The infection rates are the same or lower in South America as they were in French Polynesia.

Therefore there is no link between the mosquitoes and microcephaly.

WHO have lots of very respectable scientists on this and not one of the epidemiologists has considered the link between zika, the mosquitoes and microcephaly. These scientists have no commercial interests and are paid to track down the cause. Their scientific reputation is linked to getting to the truth. They would be talking about this and requesting governments to ban the use of these mosquitoes if even one of them suspected a link.

 

[Gromett]

I caught this many years ago in similar circumstances, I had a bout of flu (not man flu, the real McCoy), during this illness I lost the use of my legs and after hospital tests GBS was diagnosed, unfortunately I developed a Chronic version of this Called CIDIPS (Chronic Inflamatory Demyelination Immunity Polyneuropathy Syndrome) a long name I know but here I am 24 years later with no feelings in my legs from my knees down and controlling it with the daily use of steroids.

I am so sorry to hear about this. That is terrible.

 

[Hollyberry]

I caught this many years ago in similar circumstances, I had a bout of flu (not man flu, the real McCoy), during this illness I lost the use of my legs and after hospital tests GBS was diagnosed, unfortunately I developed a Chronic version of this Called CIDIPS (Chronic Inflamatory Demyelination Immunity Polyneuropathy Syndrome) a long name I know but here I am 24 years later with no feelings in my legs from my knees down and controlling it with the daily use of steroids.

Sorry to hear that. It seems to be a group of illnesses that have some things in common and the effects seem to vary. In the 3 years she was ill my relative had extreme pain in feet ( even brushing against them with a sheet making the bed made her cry out--- and she's the exact opposite of a drama queen. ) Then there was numbness in her feet and legs. I think her hands were also affected but that was milder She had to use a wheelchair during one phase and one aside of her face dropped ( diagnosed as Bell's palsy, not a stroke) After about 2 and a half years she started to recover and by 3 years in was able to drive again and walk unaided.
Needs a lot more research as its a crappy illness to get.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[mjltigger]

Where is my bad science?

Your conspiracy theory from your picture linked the release of genetically modified mosquitoes to the outbreak of Zika. This is patently not the case. I have not used any bad science anywhere in my post. I have stated facts from reputable sources. Your conspiracy theory started on the Conspiracy thread on Reddit and has done the social media rounds and ended up with pictures like yours. The people who started it have no scientific background and have not even looked at the facts.

Here are some links for you to read... Only from reputable newspapers. I have skipped the scientific papers on the subject because I am guessing they would be too hard going for you.

How the link to microcephaly was discovered.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bra...ded-alarm-on-zika-and-microcephaly-1454109620

How they discovered that microcephaly was not a new side effect in Brazil, ie it was in French Polynesia as well. The final paragraph also blows out the water the profit motive for a company to be involved with the spread of the virus.
Broken Link Removed

If Zika virus has been in Africa and Asia for decades, why wasn’t a link to microcephaly detected earlier?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/health/what-is-zika-virus.html#id-56a0f2117d0bed0001000000

The disease is spreading faster in Brazil and other South American countries because they are more densely populated, they are a wetter continent than Africa so Mosquitoes are a bigger problem, They are Richer than Africa so tend to travel more causing the spread to be faster. These are all facts that explain the rapid spread in South America.

If you want to look at the original source for this conspiracy see this; It should get your conspiracy theory juices flowing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/42mhii/genetically_modified_mosquitoes_released_in/
All of the "questions" can be easily answered or refuted.

FACT: Zika has been found in French Polynesia.
FACT: The same birth defects have been found in French Polynesia
FACT: No genetically modified mosquitoes were released in French Polynesia
FACT: The infection rates are the same or lower in South America as they were in French Polynesia.

Therefore there is no link between the mosquitoes and microcephaly.

WHO have lots of very respectable scientists on this and not one of the epidemiologists has considered the link between zika, the mosquitoes and microcephaly. These scientists have no commercial interests and are paid to track down the cause. Their scientific reputation is linked to getting to the truth. They would be talking about this and requesting governments to ban the use of these mosquitoes if even one of them suspected a link.

I think you and @sdc77 may be labouring under the misunderstanding that the conspiracy theory you are attempting to quash is mine or was posted by me.. It isn't mine and I didn't post it. I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do not believe (usually) that any government is out to get me, nor do I believe everything I read...

Bad science is using statistics to prove causality without theory of mechanism. There is not yet a viable theory of mechanism for the statistical link in the rise of microencephaly and zika. Without it, we are punching blindly at a problem we may or may not understand enough to tackle.

The media latch on to an idea or a theory and spread it as fact. If the theory turns out to be true then this can potentially save live, otherwise it just makes the science harder to follow.

 

[Gromett]

I think you and @sdc77 may be labouring under the misunderstanding that the conspiracy theory you are attempting to quash is mine or was posted by me.. It isn't mine and I didn't post it. I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do not believe (usually) that any government is out to get me, nor do I believe everything I read...

Bad science is using statistics to prove causality without theory of mechanism. There is not yet a viable theory of mechanism for the statistical link in the rise of microcephaly and zika. Without it, we are punching blindly at a problem we may or may not understand enough to tackle.

The media latch on to an idea or a theory and spread it as fact. If the theory turns out to be true then this can potentially save live, otherwise it just makes the science harder to follow.

My apologies I got a bit lost and thought you posted the image. It wasn't you but you said

Is it any less plausible than the story the media are pushing

in response to my stating my frustration about these conspiracy theories.

So my response to this was YES it is totally implausible because the facts don't support the conspiracy theory that the image relates so in any way shape or form.

The link to microcephaly is a statistical one currently with some but not conclusive evidence. I don't recall ever saying otherwise. This makes it the most and only plausible explanation so far.

However there is no link whatsoever between genetically engineered mosquitoes and the spread of Zika which is what I was originally posting about. It is totally implausible due to the FACTS: I posted above.

I did make the point about correlation and causation including the joke about the link between organic food and autism.

Conspiracy theories drive me up the wall.....

 

[mjltigger]

My apologies I got a bit lost and thought you posted the image. It wasn't you but you said
in response to my stating my frustration about these conspiracy theories.

So my response to this was YES it is totally implausible because the facts don't support the conspiracy theory that the image relates so in any way shape or form.

The link to microcephaly is a statistical one currently with some but not conclusive evidence. I don't recall ever saying otherwise. This makes it the most and only plausible explanation so far.

However there is no link whatsoever between genetically engineered mosquitoes and the spread of Zika which is what I was originally posting about. It is totally implausible due to the FACTS: I posted above.

I did make the point about correlation and causation including the joke about the link between organic food and autism.

Conspiracy theories drive me up the wall.....

I see that

I'm inclined to be open to the likelihood that everyone is fallible and journalists are lazy.. I like to review as much evidence as possible before I jump to conclusions. The implausible parts of the current zika news is the timing of tr various events being reported (such as airborne transmission, presence in saliva and sexual transmission) the likelihood is IMHO this will be another bird flu.. Well we live in hope anyway..

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}

 

[Gromett]

I see that

I'm inclined to be open to the likelihood that everyone is fallible and journalists are lazy.. I like to review as much evidence as possible before I jump to conclusions. The implausible parts of the current zika news is the timing of tr various events being reported (such as airborne transmission, presence in saliva and sexual transmission) the likelihood is IMHO this will be another bird flu.. Well we live in hope anyway..

So you don't agree with the conspiracy theory picture posted earlier after all then?

I have seen nothing about airborne transmission. That is not how this virus works. Anyone saying it can become airborne does not really understand what they are on about.

I have seen the reports of presence in saliva and urine, but this was at low levels and not likely to be infectious. I have seen no news reports to the contrary.

This is nothing like bird flu as it is a human virus already. Bird flu does have the potential and in some variants is airborne zika isn't. Zika requires mosquitoes to provide the blood to blood transfers necessary for it's spread and a specific species at that.

In my opinion it is likely to become like the other viruses in the same family, spread in the same way to the same places. The only difference is this causes a serious birth defect. I would guess that government funding will become available to develop and produce the vaccine which will be given to women of a child bearing age. It will not be that profitable for the companies involved. We will learn to live with it. Without eradicating the mosquito that carries it we will have this around forever. I have a feeling this will push the mosquito scientists to further their attempts.

Conspiracy theories like the one in the picture will just cause the uninformed to cause problems for the science. Look at the report on the MMR vaccine causing Autism. There are still parents in the U.S. who are refusing all vaccinations. This is damaging the herd immunity...

We need to clip these unfounded conspiracy memes wherever we, can not encourage them. I am a sceptic big time and always read up on anything that seems too strange to be true. We need encourage people to be more suspicious of things like this.

 

[mjltigger]

So you don't agree with the conspiracy theory picture posted earlier after all then?

I have seen nothing about airborne transmission. That is not how this virus works. Anyone saying it can become airborne does not really understand what they are on about.

I have seen the reports of presence in saliva and urine, but this was at low levels and not likely to be infectious. I have seen no news reports to the contrary.

This is nothing like bird flu as it is a human virus already. Bird flu does have the potential and in some variants is airborne zika isn't. Zika requires mosquitoes to provide the blood to blood transfers necessary for it's spread and a specific species at that.

In my opinion it is likely to become like the other viruses in the same family, spread in the same way to the same places. The only difference is this causes a serious birth defect. I would guess that government funding will become available to develop and produce the vaccine which will be given to women of a child bearing age. It will not be that profitable for the companies involved. We will learn to live with it. Without eradicating the mosquito that carries it we will have this around forever. I have a feeling this will push the mosquito scientists to further their attempts.

Conspiracy theories like the one in the picture will just cause the uninformed to cause problems for the science. Look at the report on the MMR vaccine causing Autism. There are still parents in the U.S. who are refusing all vaccinations. This is damaging the herd immunity...

We need to clip these unfounded conspiracy memes wherever we, can not encourage them. I am a sceptic big time and always read up on anything that seems too strange to be true. We need encourage people to be more suspicious of things like this.

I agree with nearly everything you say.. In fact I agree with everything you say but feel we need to add that being suspicious of conspiracy theories is right, it is also important to be mindful when reading press reports even if they claim to be quoting 'official' sources.. unfortunately the mass populace has neither the research skills nor the inclination to dig beyond the bold type at the start of an article in the fun or fail.

 

[GWAYGWAY]

GBS can follow ANY viral infection and is not restricted to any particular virus. Do not worry about what the Daily Smail says about these things. And the mosquitoes that cause Dengue fever were in the UK before you were. It was the one that made Dungeness such a dodgy place to live in the medieval years, as the Marsh there was plagued by the same mosquito as it causing the problems now. The people on the marsh died young and yet the people on the Downs nearby didn't. It was warmer in that period,and wetter just like we are going into now. The Yanks killed off DDT and that is the reason that millions of people world wide die from malaria and Dengue, just that they said it was present in Tuna . Which is worse, No deaths from DDT or millions from disease.

^{_{Subscribers  do not see these advertisements}}